Amending the Heston Stochastic Volatility Model to Forecast Local Motor Vehicle Crash Rates: A Case Study of Washington, D.C.
Modelling crash rates in an urban area requires a swathe of data regarding historical and prevailing traffic volumes and crash events and characteristics. Provided that the traffic volume of urban networks is largely defined by typical work and school commute patterns, crash rates can be determined with a reasonable degree of accuracy. However, this process becomes more complicated for an area that is frequently subject to peaks and troughs in traffic volume and crash events owing to exogenous events – for example, extreme weather – rather than typical commute patterns. One such area that is particularly exposed to exogenous events is Washington, D.C., which has seen a large rise in crash events between 2009 and 2020. In this study, the authors adopt a forecasting model that embeds heterogeneity and temporal instability in its estimates in order to improve upon forecasting models currently used in transportation and road safety research. Specifically, the authors introduce a stochastic volatility model that aims to capture the nuances associated with crash rates in Washington, D.C. The authors determine that this model can outperform conventional forecasting models, but it does not perform well in light of the unique travel patterns exhibited throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. Nevertheless, its adaptability to the idiosyncrasies of Washington, D.C. crash rates demonstrates its ability to accurately simulate localized crash rates processes, which can be further adapted in public policy contexts to form road safety targets.
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Availability:
- Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/issn/25901982
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Supplemental Notes:
- © 2022 Darren Shannon and Grigorios Fountas. Published by Elsevier Ltd. Abstract reprinted with permission of Elsevier.
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Authors:
- Shannon, Darren
- Fountas, Grigorios
- Publication Date: 2022-3
Language
- English
Media Info
- Media Type: Web
- Features: References;
- Pagination: 100576
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Serial:
- Transportation Research Interdisciplinary Perspectives
- Volume: 13
- Issue Number: 0
- Publisher: Elsevier
- ISSN: 2590-1982
- Serial URL: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/transportation-research-interdisciplinary-perspectives
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Publication flags:
Open Access (libre)
Subject/Index Terms
- TRT Terms: Crash data; Crash rates; Crash risk forecasting; Traffic volume
- Geographic Terms: Washington (District of Columbia)
- Subject Areas: Data and Information Technology; Highways; Safety and Human Factors;
Filing Info
- Accession Number: 01840940
- Record Type: Publication
- Files: TRIS
- Created Date: Mar 29 2022 9:58AM