Light-Duty Vehicle Attribute Projections (Years 2015-2030)

This report describes the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s projections of vehicle attributes for light-duty vehicles expected to be available within California for model years 2015 to 2030. The projected attributes, which are provided by light-duty vehicle class and powertrain, include fuel economy, acceleration, driving range, manufacturer suggested retail price, and vehicle footprint. Attributes are weighted by California vehicle sales, which are projected using a historically validated consumer choice model – the Automotive Deployment Option Projection Tool (ADOPT) – integrated with a modeling framework that simulates vehicle fuel economy, cost, and acceleration performance while optimizing vehicle components – the Future Automotive Systems Technology Simulator model (FASTSim). Both models were developed at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and have been adapted to represent the California light-duty vehicle market. The analysis includes several scenarios, as established by the California Energy Commission, pertaining to electricity demand in California. Results suggest that implementation of policies, such as the Corporate Average Fuel Economy standards, affect vehicle attribute projections. The results also suggest that standards and policy targets are not exclusively met by changes in vehicle attributes, but also through shifts in market demand and sales for certain vehicle powertrains. The projected vehicle attributes serve an important role in projecting future vehicle ownership decisions in California.

  • Record URL:
  • Corporate Authors:

    National Renewable Energy Laboratory

    15013 Denver West Parkway
    Golden, CO  United States  80401

    California Energy Commission

    1516 9th Street
    Sacramento, CA  United States  95814
  • Authors:
    • Kontou, Eleftheria
    • Melaina, Marc
    • Brooker, Aaron
  • Publication Date: 2018-7

Language

  • English

Media Info

  • Media Type: Digital/other
  • Features: Appendices; Figures; Glossary; References; Tables;
  • Pagination: 95p

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 01838245
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Report/Paper Numbers: CEC-200-2018-008
  • Contract Numbers: 600-15-001
  • Files: TRIS
  • Created Date: Mar 9 2022 12:12PM