Risk state changes analysis of railway dangerous goods transportation system: Based on the cusp catastrophe model
In this paper, the cusp catastrophe model is applied to analyze the railway dangerous goods transportation system risk state changes. Firstly, a Risk-Accident Catastrophe Tree is proposed to formulate the process that how the risk factors cause the accident. Secondly, the whole risk factors are classified into five categories including failure of human behavior, machine failure, transported materials, environment problems and management problems. Next, the cusp catastrophe model of railway dangerous goods transportation system is established, the Split Coefficient is defined to evaluate bifurcation set. The results of the case study show that the risk state changes of railway dangerous goods transportation system satisfy bimodality, inaccessibility, sudden transitions and divergence, but not satisfy hysteresis. The larger the Split Coefficient is, the easier the trajectory of system control point crosses with bifurcation sets. The reason of the system state changes from a safe state to a risk state is: as long as the trajectory of system control point crosses with bifurcation sets, there must be a cusp catastrophe in the system, and the system control point will cross the fold surface, which makes the risk energy increase sharply, the structure, information and energy of the system will also be destroyed.
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Availability:
- Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/issn/09518320
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Supplemental Notes:
- © 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Abstract reprinted with permission of Elsevier.
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Authors:
- Huang, Wencheng
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0000-0002-3773-0686
- Zhang, Rui
- Xu, Minhao
- Yu, Yaocheng
- Xu, Yifei
- De Dieu, Gatesi Jean
- Publication Date: 2020-10
Language
- English
Media Info
- Media Type: Web
- Features: Figures; References; Tables;
- Pagination: 107059
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Serial:
- Reliability Engineering & System Safety
- Volume: 202
- Issue Number: 0
- Publisher: Elsevier
- ISSN: 0951-8320
- Serial URL: https://www.sciencedirect.com/journal/reliability-engineering-and-system-safety
Subject/Index Terms
- TRT Terms: Crash causes; Crash risk forecasting; Freight transportation; Hazardous materials; Railroad safety; Railroad transportation
- Subject Areas: Freight Transportation; Planning and Forecasting; Railroads; Safety and Human Factors;
Filing Info
- Accession Number: 01843903
- Record Type: Publication
- Files: TRIS
- Created Date: Apr 25 2022 3:51PM