Future Climate Scenarios for Runway Length: Assessment of Wet/Dry Runway Surface Conditions With Observational Precipitation Data

This report presents a geostatistical method for analyzing wet/dry runway surface conditions using observational precipitation data for the United States (U.S.). Using the most recent U.S. Fourth National Climate Assessment as a primary resource, observed precipitation changes related to wet/dry days in the U.S. and their regional trends were identified. Two sources of daily U.S. observed precipitation data were used: (1) the National Weather Service (NWS) Cooperative Observer Program (COOP) and (2) the Global Historical Climate Network (GHCN). Then, the regression kriging method was applied to estimate wet/dry days for ~ 3,300 National Plan of Integrated Airport Systems (NPIAS) airport locations. Results show a general increase in dry days, which are particularly pronounced during a fall season, and an increase in wet days with absolute rainfall (R) > 10 mm. Regions particularly sensitive to change in wet/dry days are the western U.S. and the southeast. These regions are exposed to subtropical or tropical storm tracks coming from the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans.

• Record URL:
  • https://www.airporttech.tc.faa.gov/Products/Airport-Safety-Papers-Publications/Airport-Safety-Detail/ArtMID/3682/ArticleID/2869/Future-Climate-Scenarios-for-Runway-Length-Assessment-of-WetDry-Runway-Surface-Conditions-With-Observational-Precipitation-Data
• Corporate Authors:

  University of California, Berkeley

  Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
  Berkeley, CA  United States  94720

  Federal Aviation Administration

  Office of Airport Planning and Programming
  Washington, DC  United States 

  Federal Aviation Administration

  William J. Hughes Technical Center
  Aviation Research Division
  Atlantic City International Airport, NJ  United States  08405
• Authors:
  • Rakas, Jasenka
  • Lukovic, Jelena
• Publication Date: 2021-12

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Digital/other
• Edition: Final Report
• Features: Figures; Maps; References;
• Pagination: 27p

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Airport runways; Forecasting; Length; Precipitation; Regression analysis
• Geographic Terms: United States
• Subject Areas: Aviation; Environment; Planning and Forecasting; Terminals and Facilities;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01833380
• Record Type: Publication
• Report/Paper Numbers: DOT/FAA/TC-21/41
• Files: TRIS, ATRI, USDOT
• Created Date: Jan 24 2022 10:47AM