BAYESIAN METHODS APPLIED TO ROAD ACCIDENT BLACK SPOT STUDIES: SOME RECENT PROGRESS

Statistical methods for evaluating the effectiveness of treatment at black spots are important for two reasons. First, they allow the engineer to determine how successful his efforts have been, and hence to estimate the costs and benefits of different types of treatment applied to different types of site. Second, they enable the researcher to test new treatment measures objectively. However, the methods which are currently used both in research and in local authority practice are not very suitable as a basis for making decisions. Bayesian methods, on the other hand, are ideally suited to this type of work. In this paper, a Bayesian approach to evaluation is briefly outlined. Some further developments in the Bayesian model, including an analysis based on a bivariate negative binomial distribution are discussed, and suggestions made for future research. (TRRL)

• Supplemental Notes:
  • This paper was presented at the OECD Seminar on Short-Term and Area-Wide Evaluation of Safety Measures, held in Amsterdam, April 19-21, 1982.
• Corporate Authors:

  Institute for Road Safety Research, SWOV

  Bezuidenhoutseweg 62
  The Hague,   Netherlands  2594 AW
• Authors:
  • Jarrett, D F
  • Abbess, C
  • WRIGHT, C C
• Publication Date: 1982-4

Media Info

• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: p. 69-74
• Serial:
  • Publication of: Institute for Road Safety Research SWOV
  • Publisher: Institute for Road Safety Research, SWOV

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Bayes' theorem; Benefit cost analysis; Binomial distributions; Conferences; Costs; Countermeasures; Distributions (Statistics); Economic efficiency; Evaluation and assessment; Forecasting; High risk locations; Mathematical models; Measures of effectiveness; Methodology; Prevention; Safety; Statistical analysis; Statistics
• Uncontrolled Terms: Bivariate analysis; Efficiency
• ITRD Terms: 1663: Accident black spot; 1661: Accident prevention; 8525: Conference; 224: Cost; 6572: Distribution (stat); 5911: Efficiency; 9020: Evaluation (assessment); 132: Forecast; 6473: Mathematical model; 9102: Method; 6555: Statistics
• Subject Areas: Data and Information Technology; Economics; Finance; Highways; Planning and Forecasting; Safety and Human Factors; Security and Emergencies; I21: Planning of Transport Infrastructure; I82: Accidents and Transport Infrastructure;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00370971
• Record Type: Publication
• Source Agency: Institute for Road Safety Research, SWOV
• Files: ITRD, TRIS
• Created Date: Mar 31 1983 12:00AM