TRANSFERABILITY ANALYSIS OF DISAGGREGATE CHOICE MODELS

The transferability of disaggregate choice models is widely assumed in travel demand analysis and forecasting. However, research results are mixed in their assessment of transferability. This paper considers transferability from the perspective of the usefulness of information provided by a model that predicts in a context different from that in which it is estimated. Issues that influence transferability are discussed and methods are formulated to evaluate transferability. These methods are demonstrated by application to spatial transfer between pairs of geographic sectors within a single urban area by using identically specified models. This application provides useful insights into the transferability of choice models. We observe an inconsistency between general measures of error that indicate that transferability in this context is appropriate and statistical analyses that reject hypotheses that support transferability. Model transferability is a property of the estimation and application contexts as well as the specification of the model. Transferability is substantially improved by adjustment of alternative-specific constants. These results indicate the need for additional research to identify the conditions of model specification and context characteristics for which model transfer is effective. Directions for such research are identified. (Author)

• Record URL:
  • http://onlinepubs.trb.org/Onlinepubs/trr/1982/895/895-004.pdf
• Record URL:
  • https://scholar.google.com/scholar_lookup?title=TRANSFERABILITY+ANALYSIS+OF+DISAGGREGATE+CHOICE+MODELS&author=F.+Koppelman&author=C.+Wilmot&publication_year=1982
• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/isbn/0309035074
• Supplemental Notes:
  • Publication of this paper sponsored by Committee on Passenger Travel Demand Forecasting. Distribution, posting, or copying of this PDF is strictly prohibited without written permission of the Transportation Research Board of the National Academy of Sciences. Unless otherwise indicated, all materials in this PDF are copyrighted by the National Academy of Sciences. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved
• Corporate Authors:

  Transportation Research Board

  500 Fifth Street, NW
  Washington, DC  United States  20001
• Authors:
  • Koppelman, Frank S
  • Wilmot, Chester G
• Publication Date: 1982

Media Info

• Media Type: Print
• Features: Figures; Maps; References; Tables;
• Pagination: pp 18-24
• Monograph Title: TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTING PROCEDURES 1982
• Serial:
  • Transportation Research Record
  • Issue Number: 895
  • Publisher: Transportation Research Board
  • ISSN: 0361-1981

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Disaggregate analysis; Errors; Mode choice; Statistical analysis; Travel demand; Urban transportation
• Uncontrolled Terms: Transferability
• Old TRIS Terms: Disaggregate models
• Subject Areas: Data and Information Technology; Highways; Planning and Forecasting; Public Transportation; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00373396
• Record Type: Publication
• ISBN: 0309035074
• Report/Paper Numbers: HS-035 371
• Files: HSL, TRIS, TRB
• Created Date: Jun 30 1984 12:00AM