DISAGGREGATE DEMAND MODELS - PROMISES AND PROSPECTS

For nearly two decades it has been recognised that there are serious deficiencies in the traditional aggregate modelling approach to travel demand analysis. It was hoped that many, if not all, of these deficiencies would be overcome through the development of disaggregate models. Yet nearly 10 years after some of the first major research projects, it has been suggested that they have not yet been successfully applied in any major planning study. There can be little doubt that disaggregate model techniques do offer the scope for major improvements over aggregate models, yet there would seem to be a growing groundswell of doubt about their ability to live up to the expectations which were cultivated during the early '70's. The crucial question to most of those concerned with planning and policy development is, even if disaggregate models are not the panacea many of us hoped them to be, whether they can still improve our forecasting ability, or not. (Author/TRRL)

• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/issn/01912615
• Corporate Authors:

  Pergamon Press, Incorporated

  Headington Hill Hall
  Oxford OX30BW,    
• Authors:
  • RICHARDS, M
• Publication Date: 1982-9-11

Media Info

• Features: References;
• Pagination: p. 399-344
• Serial:
  • Transportation Research Part B: Methodological
  • Volume: 16A
  • Issue Number: 5-6
  • Publisher: Elsevier
  • ISSN: 0191-2615
  • Serial URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/01912615

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Demand; Disaggregate analysis; Forecasting; Improvements; Mathematical models; Planning; Policy; Travel; Travel demand
• Old TRIS Terms: Disaggregate models
• ITRD Terms: 285: Demand (econ); 132: Forecast; 9108: Improvement; 698: Journey; 6473: Mathematical model; 143: Planning; 173: Policy
• Subject Areas: Highways; Operations and Traffic Management; Planning and Forecasting; Policy; I71: Traffic Theory; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00372743
• Record Type: Publication
• Source Agency: Transport Research Laboratory
• Files: ITRD, TRIS
• Created Date: May 31 1983 12:00AM