TIME SERIES FORECASTING APPLIED TO COST-SENSITIVE DATA - AN EXAMPLE USING TYNE TUNNEL TRAFFIC AND TOLLS

Current practice requires that the impact of changes in tolls on estuarial crossings be assessed in terms of traffic demand. The method previously used by Tyne and Wear County Council was the application of the Department of Transport model "tolls." Doubts about some of the inputs to this model led to a careful consideration of basic data and alternative methods of treatment. A model was developed and is described which considers time series of traffic flows and tolls and produces forecasts based on seasonal variation, reaction to toll changes and underlying traffic growth. The short-/medium-term performance of the model has been assessed and the results are shown. The paper concludes with a brief consideration of portability and of other applications. (Author/TRRL)

• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/issn/00410683
• Corporate Authors:

  Printerhall Limited

  29 Newmart Street
  London W1P 3PE,   England 
• Authors:
  • Smart, H E
  • Ramsey, JBH
• Publication Date: 1982-10

Media Info

• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: p. 492-494
• Serial:
  • Traffic Engineering & Control
  • Volume: 23
  • Issue Number: 10
  • Publisher: Hemming Group, Limited
  • ISSN: 0041-0683
  • Serial URL: http://www.tecmagazine.com/

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Costs; Demand; Forecasting; Highway operations; Mathematical models; Seasons; Tariffs; Time series; Toll roads; Tolls; Traffic flow; Travel demand; Tunnels; Vehicular tunnels; Years
• Uncontrolled Terms: Decreases; Increase; Models; Seasonal variations
• Geographic Terms: United Kingdom
• Old TRIS Terms: Tunnel traffic operations
• ITRD Terms: 9009: Decrease; 285: Demand (econ); 132: Forecast; 9032: Increase; 6473: Mathematical model; 2525: Season; 241: Tariff; 2702: Toll road; 671: Traffic flow; 3374: Tunnel; 8119: United Kingdom; 9091: Year
• Subject Areas: Bridges and other structures; Finance; Highways; Operations and Traffic Management; Planning and Forecasting; I10: Economics and Administration; I71: Traffic Theory;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00370445
• Record Type: Publication
• Source Agency: Transport Research Laboratory
• Report/Paper Numbers: HS-033 827
• Files: ITRD, TRIS
• Created Date: Mar 31 1983 12:00AM