Modeling Dynamic Processes in the California ZEV Market (2014-2016) [supporting dataset]

The market for plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) that primarily include battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs) has been rapidly growing in California for the past few years. Given the targets for PEV penetration in the state, it is important to have a better understanding of the pattern of technology diffusion and the factors that are driving the process. Using spatial analysis and Poisson count models the authors identify the importance of a neighborhood effect (at home locations) and a peer effect (at commute destinations) in supporting the diffusion of PEV technology in California. In the case of new BEV sales, the authors find that exposure to one additional BEV or PHEV within a 1-mile radius of a block group centroid is associated with a 0.2% increase in BEV sales in the block group. Interestingly, for new PHEV sales- the neighborhood effect of BEV sales is negative, suggesting that enhanced exposure to this type of technology (which is differentiated in distinctive ways from PHEVs) may impact new PHEV sales through a substitution effect. Specifically, higher BEV concentration in an area can have an overall negative effect on new PHEV sales. While the neighborhood effect at residential locations is important, a peer effect at commute destinations also has a notably important effect on new PEV sales. Both of these effects work in combination with socioeconomic, demographic, policy, and built environment factors in encouraging PEV adoption. These results suggest that policymakers should consider targeted programs and investments that can boost the impact of neighborhood and peer effects on PEV sales. Data on new plug-in vehicle sales are estimated from the Department of Motor Vehicle's (DMV's) vehicle registration data. This vehicle registration data was then combined with data from the American Community survey, LODES data, and Smart Location Mapping data to account for other sources of dynamics in California's PEV market.

• Record URL:
  http://doi.org/10.7922/G2H993G0
• Dataset URL:
  https://doi.org/10.25338/B8RK86
• Dataset URL:
  https://rosap.ntl.bts.gov/view/dot/60490
• Supplemental Notes:
  • The dataset supports report: Plug-in Electric Vehicle Diffusion in California: Role of Exposure to New Technology at Home and Work, available at the URL above.
• Corporate Authors:

  University of California, Davis

  Institute of Transportation Studies
  Davis, CA  United States  95616

  National Center for Sustainable Transportation

  University of California, Davis
  Davis, CA  United States 

  Office of the Assistant Secretary for Research and Technology

  University Transportation Centers Program
  Department of Transportation
  Washington, DC  United States  20590
• Authors:
  • Chakraborty, Debapriya
  • 0000-0001-9898-4068
  • Bunch, David
  • 0000-0001-8728-7072
  • Brownstone, David
  • 0000-0001-9101-6494
• Publication Date: 2021-9-22

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Dataset
• Dataset publisher:

  Dryad

  ,    

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Data; Electric vehicles; Market assessment; Neighborhoods; Sales; Spatial analysis
• Geographic Terms: California
• Subject Areas: Data and Information Technology; Economics; Highways; Vehicles and Equipment;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01782722
• Record Type: Publication
• Contract Numbers: USDOT Grant 69A3551747114
• Files: UTC, NTL, TRIS, ATRI, USDOT
• Created Date: Sep 24 2021 10:19AM