America’s fleet evolution in an automated future

Cost reductions and technological advancements are priming autonomous, electric, and shared vehicles for rapid growth, which may improve safety and mobility, but may also increase vehicle-miles traveled (VMT). This study seeks to improve upon existing fleet evolution work, by simulating the adoption of autonomous, electric, and shared vehicles in a single fleet evolution simulation, calibrated with results of a recent survey of Americans. Statistical models are used in the household-level microsimulation to model decisions regarding vehicle transactions, travel behavior, and land use decisions.The simulation predicts a shift in the powertrain makeup of the United States fleet, with hybrid-electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles each comprising over 40% of the private fleet by 2050. The rate of decline of the price premium for self-driving vehicle technology has a significant effect on autonomous vehicle (AV) adoption rates. Allowing the ability to retain a human-driving option in self-driving vehicles increases AV adoption rates by roughly 10% by 2050. Shared autonomous vehicle (SAV) use rises to roughly 35% of overall VMT by 2050, about one third of which is via dynamic ride-sharing (DRS). VMT among private vehicles roughly follows adoption rates, though technologies with greater adoption generally experience disproportionately higher VMT.

• Record URL:
  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.retrec.2021.101107
• Record URL:
  http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0739885921000792
• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/issn/07398859
• Supplemental Notes:
  • © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Abstract reprinted with permission of Elsevier.
• Authors:
  • Quarles, Neil
  • 0000-0001-5049-828X
  • Kockelman, Kara M
  • 0000-0003-4763-1304
  • Lee, Jooyong
  • 0000-0002-7940-6657
• Publication Date: 2021-12

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Web
• Features: Appendices; Figures; References; Tables;
• Serial:
  • Research in Transportation Economics
  • Volume: 90
  • Issue Number: 0
  • Publisher: Elsevier
  • ISSN: 0739-8859
  • Serial URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/07398859

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Automobile ownership; Autonomous vehicles; Electric vehicles; Vehicle fleets; Vehicle miles of travel; Vehicle sharing
• Geographic Terms: United States
• Subject Areas: Highways; Vehicles and Equipment;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01784005
• Record Type: Publication
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: Sep 30 2021 5:13PM