THE EFFECT OF MARKET SEGMENTATION ON GRAVITY MODEL PERFORMANCE

This paper describes an investigation into the effect of market segmentation on gravity model performance, using 1971 and 1976 census data for Melbourne. A subsidiary objective was to examine the estimation technique and model form most appropriate for the type of data used. Segmentation on the basis of sex, occupation and origin zone was undertaken, and the gravity model parameter was found to vary widely with each. In particular, origin specific parameters estimated demonstrated striking map patterns, indicating potentially serious model mis-specification. Occupation and origin zone were concluded to be important segmenting variables, and were retained for use in the prediction of 1976 interchanges using parameters estimated for 1971. A method of prediction is developed that reduces the problem of relevant choice set mis-specification. The use of segmentation was shown to give some reduction in predictive errors, but residual errors due to model form are shown to be large, and mask the improvement afforded by segmentation. Nevertheless, a 50 per cent reduction in the reducible error is achievable, and segmentation represents a worthwhile approach to improving current practice (a). The number of the covering abstract of the conference is TRIS no. 368448. (TRRL)

• Record URL:
  • http://arrbknowledge.com
• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/issn/00050164
• Supplemental Notes:
  • Proceedings of the Eleventh Australian Road Research Board Conference, held at the University of Melbourne, August 23-27, 1982.
• Corporate Authors:

  ARRB

  Melbourne, Victoria  Australia 
• Authors:
  • Brown, H P
• Publication Date: 1982

Media Info

• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: p. 88-100
• Serial:
  • Australian Road Research
  • Publisher: ARRB
  • ISSN: 0005-0164

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Census; Conferences; Errors; Females; Forecasting; Gender; Gravity models; Human beings; Information processing; Jobs; Markets; Methodology; Occupations; Origin and destination; Tests; Traffic; Transportation
• Geographic Terms: Australia
• Old TRIS Terms: Origin; Segmentation
• ITRD Terms: 8006: Australia; 336: Census (popul); 8525: Conference; 8655: Data processing; 6440: Error; 132: Forecast; 690: Gravity model; 1787: Man; 9102: Method; 2271: Occupation; 687: Origin destination traffic; 6255: Test; 755: Traffic; 1155: Transport; 1788: Woman
• Subject Areas: Data and Information Technology; Operations and Traffic Management; Planning and Forecasting; Transportation (General); I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00368533
• Record Type: Publication
• Source Agency: ARRB
• Report/Paper Numbers: V11, Pt6
• Files: ITRD, TRIS, ATRI
• Created Date: Jan 31 1983 12:00AM