Influence of Transportation Network on Transmission Heterogeneity of COVID-19 in China
In this paper, the authors propose a novel approach to model spatial heterogeneity for epidemic spreading, which combines the relevance of transport proximity in human movement and the excellent estimation accuracy of deep neural network. The authors apply this model to investigate the effects of various transportation networks on the heterogeneous propagation of COVID-19 in China. The authors further apply it to predict the development of COVID-19 in China in two scenarios, i.e., i) assuming that different types of traffic restriction policies are conducted and ii) assuming that the epicenter of the COVID-19 outbreak is in Beijing, so as to illustrate the potential usage of the model in generating various policy insights to help the containment of the further spread of COVID-19. The authors find that the most effective way to prevent the coronavirus from spreading quickly and extensively is to control the routes linked to the epicenter at the beginning of the pandemic. But if the virus has been widely spread, setting restrictions on hub cities would be much more efficient than imposing the same travel ban across the whole country. The authors also show that a comprehensive consideration of the epicenter location is necessary for disease control.
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Availability:
- Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/issn/0968090X
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Supplemental Notes:
- © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Abstract reprinted with permission of Elsevier.
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Authors:
- Lu, Jing
- Lin, Anrong
- Jiang, Changmin
- Zhang, Anming
- Yang, Zhongzhen
- Publication Date: 2021-8
Language
- English
Media Info
- Media Type: Web
- Features: Appendices; Figures; Maps; References; Tables;
- Pagination: 103231
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Serial:
- Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies
- Volume: 129
- Issue Number: 0
- Publisher: Elsevier
- ISSN: 0968-090X
- Serial URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/0968090X
Subject/Index Terms
- TRT Terms: COVID-19; Epidemiology; Forecasting; Neural networks; Safety; Travel
- Geographic Terms: Beijing (China); China
- Subject Areas: Passenger Transportation; Planning and Forecasting; Safety and Human Factors; Security and Emergencies;
Filing Info
- Accession Number: 01782093
- Record Type: Publication
- Files: TRIS
- Created Date: Sep 22 2021 11:54AM