Factors influencing the COVID-19 daily deaths peak across European countries

The purpose of this study was to determine predictors of the height of COVID-19 daily deaths peak and time to the peak, in order to explain their variability across European countries. For 34 European countries, publicly available data were collected on daily numbers of COVID-19 deaths, population size, healthcare capacity, government restrictions and their timing, tourism and change in mobility during the pandemic. Univariate and multivariate generalized linear models using different selection algorithms (forward, backward, stepwise and genetic algorithm) were analyzed with height of COVID-19 daily deaths peak and time to the peak as dependent variables. The proportion of the population living in urban areas, mobility at the day of first reported death and number of infections when borders were closed were assessed as significant predictors of the height of COVID-19 daily deaths peak. Testing the model with variety of selection algorithms provided consistent results. Total hospital bed capacity, population size, number of foreign travelers and day of border closure, were found as significant predictors of time to COVID-19 daily deaths peak. The analysis demonstrated that countries with higher proportions of the population living in urban areas, with lower reduction in mobility at the beginning of the pandemic, and countries which closed borders having more infected people experienced higher peak of COVID-19 deaths. Greater bed capacity, bigger population size and later border closure could result in delaying time to reach the deaths peak, whereas a high number of foreign travelers could accelerate it.

• Record URL:
  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.puhe.2021.02.037
• Record URL:
  http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0033350621001104
• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/issn/00333506
• Supplemental Notes:
  • © 2021 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Abstract reprinted with permission of Elsevier.
• Authors:
  • Jabłońska, Katarzyna
  • 0000-0001-7421-443X
  • Aballéa, Samuel
  • Toumi, Mondher
• Publication Date: 2021-5

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Web
• Features: References;
• Pagination: pp 135-142
• Serial:
  • Public Health
  • Volume: 194
  • Issue Number: 0
  • Publisher: Elsevier
  • ISSN: 0033-3506
  • Serial URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/00333506

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Communicable diseases; COVID-19; Demographics; Fatalities; Mobility; Population; Social factors; Tourism
• Geographic Terms: Europe
• Subject Areas: Data and Information Technology; Highways; Safety and Human Factors; Society;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01773765
• Record Type: Publication
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: Jun 7 2021 9:43AM