TRANSITION TO THE POST-1985 MOTOR VEHICLE

A preliminary assessment is presented of the potential petroleum savings, technical feasibility, and material and capital resource requirements associated with a highly fuel efficient post-1985 passenger car and light truck fleet (baseline of 27.5 mpg for 1985 passenger cars and 20 mpg for light trucks). A scenario of 40 mpg for cars and 25 mpg for light trucks/vans would result in fuel savings of 1.8 million bbl/day by the year 2000; with 50 mpg cars and 35 mpg light trucks/vans, the fuel savings would be nearly 3 million bbl/day (25% and 40% over the baseline). Marketable car and light truck fleets of 40 to 50 mpg and 25 to 35 mpg, respectively, are thought to be technically possible by the mid-1990's through fleet weight reduction by materials substitution (high-strength steel, fiberglass reinforced plastic, aluminum, and hybrid reinforced plastic) and by a shift in fleet mix to smaller vehicles. The question remains whether such a fleet can be produced at an affordable cost and in conformance with consumer needs (roominess, comfort, driveability). The shift in materials requirements for the post-1985 car and light truck fleet is indicated, as well as necessary capital expenditures. The total 1985-1995 program cost (research, engineering, pre-production, and launch) is estimated to be nearly $100 billion (1979 dollars). Cost of fuel saved is estimated at $30-$45 billion/year by the year 2000. Two programs (West German and U.S.) have been initiated to generate data for evaluating the technical and economic feasibility of continued post-1985 motor vehicle fuel economy improvements.

• Supplemental Notes:
  • Published in HS-805 233 (TRIS 361554) "International Automotive Fuel Economy Research Conference (1st) Proceedings, Washington, D.C., 1980, pp 101-7. Conference held October 31-November 2, 1979.
• Corporate Authors:

  Transportation Systems Center

  55 Broadway, Kendall Square
  Cambridge, MA  United States  02142
• Authors:
  • John, R R
• Publication Date: 1980

Media Info

• Pagination: 7 p.

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Aluminum; Automobiles; Compact automobiles; Feasibility analysis; Fuel consumption; High strength steel; Light trucks; Plastics; Savings; Technology; Vehicle design; Vehicle weight
• Old TRIS Terms: Small car
• Subject Areas: Design; Energy; Motor Carriers; Safety and Human Factors;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00370526
• Record Type: Publication
• Source Agency: National Highway Traffic Safety Administration
• Report/Paper Numbers: HS-031 348
• Files: HSL, USDOT
• Created Date: Feb 28 1983 12:00AM