FORECASTING CAR OWNERSHIP AND USE

The aim of the group was to review the state-of-the-art of forecasting car ownership and use. In spite of the present economic and social context, car ownership continues to increase and information is needed at different decision-making levels to evaluate long-range development programmes. The report reviews statistical data sources and analyses the factors affecting car ownership. A study is presented of the various forecasting methodologies, focusing on the validity of some prediction methods using specific types of models as well as the sensitivity to the economic variables taken into account. A final section attempts to outline development trends of car ownership taking into account changing automobile characteristics and other explanatory factors. Members of the study group came from Belgium, Canada, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Japan, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom. (TRRL)

• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/isbn/9264123482
• Corporate Authors:

  Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)

  2, rue André Pascal
  Paris,   France  75775 Paris Cedex 16
• Publication Date: 1982-5

Media Info

• Features: Appendices; Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: 107 p.

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Accessibility; Automobile ownership; Automobile travel; Automobiles; Costs; Decision making; Forecasting; Households; Income; Jobs; Mathematical models; Methodology; Motor vehicles; Motors; Numbers; Operating costs; Ownership; Public transit; Questionnaires; Sensitivity; Size; Sociology; State of the art reports; State of the art studies; Validity
• Uncontrolled Terms: Mileage; Use
• ITRD Terms: 9139: Accessibility; 1243: Car; 224: Cost; 9014: Dimension; 132: Forecast; 309: Household; 256: Income; 9147: Interview; 6488: Length; 6473: Mathematical model; 9102: Method; 1334: Motor; 6432: Number; 2271: Occupation; 221: Operating costs; 744: Public transport; 2253: Sociology; 8588: State of the art report; 9084: Use; 315: Vehicle ownership
• Subject Areas: Finance; Highways; Planning and Forecasting; Public Transportation; Society; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00368603
• Record Type: Publication
• Source Agency: Transport Research Laboratory
• ISBN: 92-64-12348-2
• Report/Paper Numbers: Monograph, HS-036 999
• Files: HSL, ITRD, TRIS
• Created Date: Jan 31 1984 12:00AM