A DYNAMIC URBAN GROWTH MODEL FOR STRATEGIC TRANSPORT PLANNING

This paper presents an exploratory model of the population redistribution process in metropolitan areas with transport pricing as the main driving determinant. A set of 10 differential equations developed from logistic growth theory describe the dispersal of population from an urban area into two encompassing concentric zones. These outward flows give rise to changes in the commuting flows by mode as well as changes in the modal mix of journey to work trips within the urban area. The model is calibrated for greater London and the south-east standard region of England between 1961 and 1976, and various possible pricing scenarios are tested to examine the population trajectories up to 1991. The results illustrate the feasibility of dynamic process-descriptive models in urban analysis, but also suggests an integrated programme of research and model-building as part of this development. (Author/TRRL)

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  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/oclc/1767712
• Corporate Authors:

  GORDON AND BREACH SCIENCE PUB.

  AMSTERDAM:
  ,    
• Authors:
  • Varaprasad, N
  • Cordey-hayes, M
• Publication Date: 1982-4

Media Info

• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: p. 109-120
• Serial:
  • Transportation Planning and Technology
  • Volume: 7
  • Issue Number: 2
  • Publisher: Taylor & Francis
  • ISSN: 0308-1060
  • Serial URL: https://www.tandfonline.com/toc/gtpt20/current

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Commuting; Costs; Economic development; Mathematical models; Modal split; Physical distribution; Planning; Population; Population movements; Pricing; Research; Transportation; Transportation planning; Travel; Urban development; Urban transportation; Work trips
• Uncontrolled Terms: Models
• Geographic Terms: United Kingdom
• ITRD Terms: 224: Cost; 9016: Distribution (gen); 698: Journey; 621: Journey to work; 6473: Mathematical model; 675: Modal split; 143: Planning; 335: Population; 1155: Transport; 8119: United Kingdom; 374: Urban development
• Subject Areas: Economics; Planning and Forecasting; Research; Society; Transportation (General); I10: Economics and Administration; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00367238
• Record Type: Publication
• Source Agency: Transport Research Laboratory
• Files: ITRD, TRIS
• Created Date: Nov 30 1982 12:00AM