ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF THE EFFECT OF VEHICLE ENERGY AND EMISSION CHANGES IN THE NATIONAL FLEET

This paper analyses the initial proposals to introduce stricter fuel consumption goals and tail-pipe emission standards which involve an increased community expenditure on new vehicles of $1,200 to $1,500 million during the decade commencing in 1985/86. The analysis shows these are not cost effective from the point of view of either energy conservation or hydrocarbon emission reduction. In developing long term national strategies for energy conservation and vehicle emission control it is necessary to ensure that: (A) the analysis covers the introduction of changes into the fleet over the conversion decade, (B) regulations are cost effective and marginal costs do not exceed marginal benefits for energy conservation, (C) the fuel comsumption goals for motor vehicles are optimised at a level where the value of the marginal fuel saved does not exceed the estimated cost of production from a large alternative source of transport fuels. The universal desire of the motor industry to use catalytic converters and unleaded petrol means that a proposed fuel consumption code of 9 l/100 km or less is uneconomic as an energy conservation strategy, unless the marginal fuel (oil) price is over $80 per barrel or $120-140 per barrel after deducting a motor industry mark-up and discounting, the future costs and benefits at 10 per cent discount factor. The proposal to introduce stricter tail-pipe emission standards equivalent to the US 1975 emission standard in 1985 does not appear economic as an energy conservation strategy and shows a net deficit of $980 million in the conversion decade or $640 million after discounting at 10 per cent (in 1979 dollars). (TRRL)

• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/issn/00360651
• Supplemental Notes:
  • The paper was presented at the National Conference of the Society of Automotive Engineers, Broadbeach, Queensland, July 1980.
• Corporate Authors:

  Society of Automotive Engineers

  191 Royal Parade
  Parkville, Victoria 3052,   Australia 
• Authors:
  • Hamilton, R B
• Publication Date: 1981-11-12

Media Info

• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: p. 264-274
• Serial:
  • SAE Australasia
  • Volume: 41
  • Issue Number: 6
  • Publisher: Society of Automotive Engineers
  • ISSN: 0036-0651

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Air quality management; Automobile industry; Catalytic converters; Conferences; Control; Control devices; Costs; Economic impacts; Economics; Energy conservation; Exhaust gases; Fleet management; Fuel consumption; Hydrocarbons; Motor vehicles; Standards
• Uncontrolled Terms: Conversion; Fleets; Modifications
• Geographic Terms: Australia
• Old TRIS Terms: Exhaust emission control
• ITRD Terms: 7127: Catalysis; 8525: Conference; 3874: Control; 226: Cost benefit analysis; 255: Economics; 212: Energy conservation; 232: Fuel consumption; 7367: Hydrocarbon; 9048: Modification; 187: Specification (standard)
• Subject Areas: Economics; Energy; Environment; Finance; Highways; Vehicles and Equipment; I96: Vehicle Operating Costs;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00362149
• Record Type: Publication
• Source Agency: ARRB
• Files: ITRD, TRIS, ATRI
• Created Date: Aug 30 1982 12:00AM