ACCIDENTS AT BLACKSPOTS: ESTIMATING THE EFFECTIVENESS OF REMEDIAL TREATMENT, WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO THE "REGRESSION-TO-MEAN" EFFECT

This paper proposes to show that the Bayesian approach is particularly well-suited to analyzing accident blackspot data, and providing information on which to judge the effectiveness of remedial treatment. This method has two main advantages: (1) it focuses the user's attention on the subjective nature of certain aspects of the problem (other methods tend to ignore this), and (2) it automatically takes account of the "regression-to-mean" effect. It also answers a practical question for the traffic engineer, of whether the regression-to-mean effect is likely to be sufficiently large to be worth worrying about for sites in his area, by illustrating the problem with some typical calculations for sites in two local authority areas in the South of England.

• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/issn/00410683
• Corporate Authors:

  Printerhall Limited

  29 Newmart Street
  London W1P 3PE,   England 
• Authors:
  • Abbess, C
  • JARRETT, D
  • WRIGHT, C C
• Publication Date: 1981-10

Media Info

• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: p. 535-542
• Serial:
  • Traffic Engineering & Control
  • Volume: 22
  • Issue Number: 10
  • Publisher: Hemming Group, Limited
  • ISSN: 0041-0683
  • Serial URL: http://www.tecmagazine.com/

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Bayes' theorem; Crashes; High risk locations; Regression analysis; Statistical analysis; Traffic engineering
• Old TRIS Terms: Remedial aids
• Subject Areas: Data and Information Technology; Highways; Safety and Human Factors;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00361942
• Record Type: Publication
• Source Agency: National Highway Traffic Safety Administration
• Report/Paper Numbers: HS-032 693
• Files: HSL, TRIS, USDOT
• Created Date: Jun 30 1982 12:00AM