PLANNING FOR OPTIONS AND COMMITMENTS: AN APPROACH TO TRANSPORT PLANNING IN UNCERTAINTY

Much transport planning is concerned with proposals of wide-ranging implications that are to be implemented over an extended period. During this time the context and the decision makers may change, and the original objective may no longer be valid. The paper outlines an approach to planning and decision making in such a situation of uncertainty. The approach requires inventing alternative futures for the system as a whole, developing scenarios for proposed intervention and, after evaluation, formulating time-limited commitments and credible options that are worth retaining. The process is incremental and open ended and involves collective learning and selective decision making in which the only firm plans are those that are actually committed. The approach, in a greatly simplified form, is illustrated by a proposal to construct a major road in an inner area of Sydney, Australia. Four alternative futures are invented and examined to determine what strategic options seem worth retaining for the system as a whole. The results may not only show which aspects of the new road require consideration, but also what options are available for its introduction and the kind of commitment that can be made.

• Record URL:
  • http://onlinepubs.trb.org/Onlinepubs/trr/1981/835/835-004.pdf
• Summary URL:
  • https://scholar.google.com/scholar_lookup?title=PLANNING+FOR+OPTIONS+AND+COMMITMENTS%3A+AN+APPROACH+TO+TRANSPORT+PLANNING+IN+UNCERTAINTY&author=H.+Westerman&publication_year=1981
• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/issn/03611981
• Supplemental Notes:
  • Publication of this paper sponsored by Committee on Transportation Systems Design. Distribution, posting, or copying of this PDF is strictly prohibited without written permission of the Transportation Research Board of the National Academy of Sciences. Unless otherwise indicated, all materials in this PDF are copyrighted by the National Academy of Sciences. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved
• Authors:
  • Westerman, Hans L
• Conference:
  • 60th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board
  • Location: Washington District of Columbia, United States
  • Date: 1981-1-12 to 1981-1-16
• Publication Date: 1981

Media Info

• Media Type: Print
• Features: Figures; Maps; References;
• Pagination: pp 15-23
• Monograph Title: Transportation system analysis
• Serial:
  • Transportation Research Record
  • Issue Number: 835
  • Publisher: Transportation Research Board
  • ISSN: 0361-1981

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Alternatives analysis; Decision making; Evaluation; Forecasting; Transportation planning
• Geographic Terms: Sydney (Australia)
• Subject Areas: Highways; Planning and Forecasting; Public Transportation; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00349760
• Record Type: Publication
• ISBN: 0309033128
• Files: TRIS, TRB, ATRI
• Created Date: Jun 30 1982 12:00AM