The Impact of COVID-19 on Traffic Crash trends in Tennessee

The first Coronavirus case detected in Wuhan city, Hubei province in China towards the end of 2019. In order to decrease the rate of transmission of COVID-19, the United States passed an order requiring people to work from home, closure of schools and non-essential businesses and barring mass gatherings. The move reduced number of people travelling, and altered travel patterns. The trend of traffic crashes before and during the COVID-19 pandemic is presented in this paper. The analysis of 4-year crash trends covering the months of March, April and May for 2017, 2018, 2019 (averaged as pre- COVID-19) and 2020 (during COVID-19) is presented. The decline in crashes was due to the limited movement and travel which decreased road traffic by more than 38%. Non parametric test was used to compare the mean of crashes before and during COVID-19, the results showed that the mean of crashes during COVID-19 was significantly lower than pre- COVID-19 for the same range of months. The geometric and traffic factors used to analyze the traffic crashes included the number of lanes, AADT, speed limit, land use, population density, median income and weather. Negative Binomial regression was used to model the impact of these factors on crashes. It was found that for each unit increase in the factors, traffic crashes increased with the increase being less for the COVID-19 period. The restrictions put in place to minimize the spread of COVID-19 decreased number of traffic crashes and generally increased road safety.

• Record URL:
  https://annualmeeting.mytrb.org/OnlineProgram/Details/15681
• Supplemental Notes:
  • This paper was sponsored by TRB committee ACS10 Standing Committee on Transportation Safety Management Systems.
• Corporate Authors:

  Transportation Research Board

  ,    
• Authors:
  • Chatmon, Morgan
  • Cherop, Beatriue
  • Chimba, Deo
• Conference:
  • Transportation Research Board 100th Annual Meeting
  • Location: Washington DC, United States
  • Date: 2021-1-5 to 2021-1-29
• Date: 2021

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Digital/other
• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: 11p

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Binomial distributions; COVID-19; Crash modification factors; Crashes; Regression analysis; Statistical analysis
• Geographic Terms: Tennessee
• Subject Areas: Highways; Safety and Human Factors;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01764144
• Record Type: Publication
• Report/Paper Numbers: TRBAM-21-00273
• Files: TRIS, TRB, ATRI
• Created Date: Feb 4 2021 11:00AM