When Will They Bunch Next? Predictive Analytics of Streetcar Bunching Occurrence Time for Real-Time Applications

Bunching occurs when transit vehicles are unable to maintain their scheduled headways, resulting in two or more vehicles arriving at a stop in close succession and following each other too closely thereafter. Very few studies have explored the prediction of bunching in real-time, particularly for streetcar service. Predicting the time to bunching in real-time allows transit agencies to take more preventive actions to avoid the occurrence of bunching or to minimize its effects. In this study, the authors present a comprehensive literature review of the recent research conducted in bunching and real-time prediction models. Based on the findings from the literature review, the authors propose a model for real-time prediction of streetcar bunching. The Kalman Filtering (KF) model predicts the travel time to bunching incidents, and is tested and analysed using automatic vehicle location (AVL) data feed for one streetcar route (Route 506 Carlton), obtained from the Toronto Transit Commission (TTC)’s next bus system. The results show that: (1) the model provides good predication quality given that it relies only on the real-time global positioning system (GPS) feed of streetcars, which makes it practical for use in real-time prediction applications; (2) the model prediction accuracy improves as the transit vehicle travels away from the terminal; and (3) increasing the number of past days involved in the calculations beyond 6 days and/or increasing the number of leading trips considered in the same day beyond 7 or 10 trips might increase the prediction error.

• Record URL:
  • https://annualmeeting.mytrb.org/OnlineProgram/Details/15664
• Supplemental Notes:
  • This paper was sponsored by TRB committee AP075 Standing Committee on Light Rail Transit.
• Corporate Authors:

  Transportation Research Board

  ,    
• Authors:
  • Aboudina, Aya
  • Diab, Ehab
  • Shalaby, Amer
• Conference:
  • Transportation Research Board 100th Annual Meeting
  • Location: Washington DC, United States
  • Date: 2021-1-5 to 2021-1-29
• Date: 2021

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Digital/other
• Features: Figures; Maps; References; Tables;
• Pagination: 21p

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Automatic vehicle location; Bunching; Forecasting; Global Positioning System; Headways; Kalman filtering; Streetcars; Travel time
• Subject Areas: Operations and Traffic Management; Planning and Forecasting; Public Transportation;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01763413
• Record Type: Publication
• Report/Paper Numbers: TRBAM-21-00403
• Files: TRIS, TRB, ATRI
• Created Date: Feb 4 2021 10:54AM