Spatiotemporal correlation study of traffic accidents with fatalities and injuries in Bogota (Colombia)

The planning and location of resources for urban traffic management generate complex decision problems, given the uncertainty of variables that explain traffic behavior, the lack of data, and the large number of factors to be considered when creating optimal policies. In particular, the attention given to traffic-related accidents by local authorities requires the modeling and forecasting of events that are spatial and temporally defined. In this study the authors use data from the traffic police department in Bogota (Colombia) about incidents with injuries or fatalities between 2014 and 2016. The authors locate each event in spatial coordinates and crossed the observations with exogenous variables (climate, seasonal events and road properties). The authors model the spatiotemporal stochastic process for accidents using a Log-Gaussian Cox model given its flexibility as it enables the use of fixed and random effects. The results of this study are summarized in three main contributions: (i) identification of principal factors that increase the risk of traffic accidents and fatalities; (ii) identification of critical zones in the city that require more attention; and (iii) a predictive tool to forecast accidents in the future, including the stochastic properties that can be used in a prescriptive model.

• Record URL:
  • https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2020.105848
• Record URL:
  • http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0001457520316687
• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/issn/00014575
• Supplemental Notes:
  • © 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Abstract reprinted with permission of Elsevier.
• Authors:
  • Ramírez, Andrés Felipe
  • 0000-0002-5969-417X
  • Valencia, Carlos
• Publication Date: 2021-1

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Web
• Features: References;
• Serial:
  • Accident Analysis & Prevention
  • Volume: 149
  • Issue Number: 0
  • Publisher: Elsevier
  • ISSN: 0001-4575
  • Serial URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/00014575

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Crash causes; Crash injuries; Fatalities; Forecasting; Highway traffic control; Risk assessment; Stochastic processes; Urban highways
• Geographic Terms: Bogotá (Colombia)
• Subject Areas: Highways; Planning and Forecasting; Safety and Human Factors;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01759595
• Record Type: Publication
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: Dec 3 2020 5:24PM