Technology Roadmap and Costs for Fuel Efficiency Increase and CO₂ Reduction From Chinese New Passenger Cars in 2030

This study evaluates the incremental costs and possible technologies for meeting the preparatory fuel efficiency target defined in “Made in China 2025”. To aid the development of strictt and cost-effective fuel efficiency standards for Chinese passenger vehicles for 2025–2030, the authors evaluated the fuel efficiency effects and costs of several new vehicle and engine technologies by using simulation modeling and teardown analysis, and combined the results to derive cost estimations for the whole Chinese passenger vehicle fleet and its largest market sections. The research answers two crucial questions for policymaking: the costs to the automobile industry of compliance with stricter carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions standards; and how accelerated electrification can ease the compliance burden for automobile manufacturers. The preparatory target of 3.2 liters (L) per 100 kilometers (km) equals about 75 grams of CO₂ per kilometer from new automobiles by 2030. With the current state of internal combustion (IC) engine technology, the target can be attained for around 4,900 yuan renminbi (CNY) ($751) in direct manufacturing cost or CNY6,700 ($1,207) in total cost. Because the incremental costs of most EVs will be cheaper than IC vehicles by 2030, the expanding EV share in the automobile fleet will provide a more cost-effective pathway to compliance with fuel consumption standards. To meet the 3.2 L/100km target, the total incremental cost of compliance is CNY1,100 ($169) per vehicle with an EV fleet penetration of 20%. When the target is met by a fleet average EV penetration of 40%, the incremental compliance cost turns into a cost saving of CNY5,000 ($767) compared with the 2017 vehicle production cost. These estimates are conservative, but the results show that increasing EV market penetration is likely to reduce the incremental cost of compliance with fuel consumption targets in 2030. Before EVs become fully dominant, there are in the meantime many cost-effective IC technologies that can reduce fuel consumption and CO₂ emissions.

• Record URL:
  https://theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/China-cost-curves-oct2020.pdf
• 
• Summary URL:
  https://theicct.org/publications/china-costcurves-oct2020
• Corporate Authors:

  International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT)

  1500 K Street NW, Suite 650
  Washington, DC  United States  20005

  Energy Foundation China

  301 Battery Street, 5th Floor
  San Francisco, CA  United States  94111

  Aspen Global Change Institute

  Basalt, CO  United States  81621
• Authors:
  • Yang, Zifei
  • Cui, Hongyang
• Publication Date: 2020-10

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Digital/other
• Edition: White Paper
• Features: Appendices; Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: 43p

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Carbon dioxide; Costs; Electric vehicles; Exhaust gases; Fuel consumption; Internal combustion engines; Passenger vehicles; Standards; Technological innovations
• Geographic Terms: China
• Subject Areas: Energy; Environment; Highways; Vehicles and Equipment;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01761796
• Record Type: Publication
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: Dec 31 2020 1:34PM