CROSS-IMPACT ANALYSIS OF PROPOSED RAILWAY SYSTEM

Developmental impacts of a proposed railway system that extends from Karachi, on the Persian Gulf, and goes through Pakistan, Iran, and Afghanistan (the PIA region) to Rasht, on the Caspian Sea, were analyzed and their projected occurrences were measured by a forecasting method called the cross-impact technique (CIT). The Karachi-Rasht Railway (KRR) impacts were identified through (a) an analogous link, the Suez Canal; (B) the study of the socioeconomic characteristics of the PIA region; and (c) the international railways of East Africa and western Europe. These facts helped provide comparative data for estimating the future levels of such aspects as energy consumption, food production, life expectancy, literacy rate, per-capita income, etc., relevant to the impact of KRR. As a first step in CIT, relationships among the 25 developmental events were established and an initial probability and an occurrence date were assigned to each event. CIT takes into account the interaction among the events by using a FORTRAN program to generate the likelihood of occurrence of each event. Because of the judged interactions among the events, there was an increase in the final probability of occurrence of identified events. CIT was found to be a suitable methodology for this research and for similar situations in which a proposed single development will predictably involve many interactions, not only with the existing situation bus also with secondary events generated by the originally proposed development. (Author)

• Record URL:
  • http://onlinepubs.trb.org/Onlinepubs/trr/1981/820/820-004.pdf
• Summary URL:
  • https://scholar.google.com/scholar_lookup?title=CROSS-IMPACT+ANALYSIS+OF+PROPOSED+RAILWAY+SYSTEM&author=F.+Najafi&publication_year=1981
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• Supplemental Notes:
  • Publication of this paper sponsored by Committee on Urban Activity Systems. Distribution, posting, or copying of this PDF is strictly prohibited without written permission of the Transportation Research Board of the National Academy of Sciences. Unless otherwise indicated, all materials in this PDF are copyrighted by the National Academy of Sciences. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
• Authors:
  • Najafi, Fazil T
• Publication Date: 1981

Media Info

• Media Type: Print
• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: pp 18-23
• Monograph Title: Land use and economic development
• Serial:
  • Transportation Research Record
  • Issue Number: 820
  • Publisher: Transportation Research Board
  • ISSN: 0361-1981

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Developing countries; Impact studies; Railroads; Socioeconomic factors; Transportation planning
• Uncontrolled Terms: Interaction
• Subject Areas: Economics; Highways; Planning and Forecasting; Railroads; Society; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00345966
• Record Type: Publication
• ISBN: 030903261X
• Files: TRIS, TRB
• Created Date: Feb 27 1982 12:00AM