REVIEW AND CRITIQUE OF FAA FORECASTS AND ASSUMPTIONS

There were three presentations - one on data sources; one on a new general aviation (GA) forecasting model; and an overview of FAA's air carrier forecasting model. The FAA uses Wharton Econometrics, Data Resources Inc., and others for national economic data, CAB data, and FAA internal reports of air traffic control. There is also an annual FAA survey of general aviation activity and avionics. Methods were presented to give aggregate national activity by general aviation aircraft. The models are now made sensitive to fuel prices, and indicate a temporary decline in GA activity over the next few years. Some inputs on fuel prices and consumer prices cause the decline. Increasing GA activity is indicated after 1982 or 1983. However, the model presented has a rather low "R-square" of .65. Discussion brought out that there is disagreement on the value of aggregate economic indicators such as GNP. Whether or not such indicators should be employed is still unresolved. The advisability of having a point estimate, a single estimate of the forecast numbers, or high and low estimates, was discussed. Some participants advocated a measure of the uncertainty of the forecast, particularly over longer time periods. The FAA reviewed their techniques of air carrier forecasting. Results indicate a 4.5 percent annual growth in revenue passenger miles and slow growth in airline operations. Operations have declined in recent years, but growth is expected to resume during the 1980's. Though impressive on a chart, the growth is only about 20 percent by 1990 for total U.S. airline operations. Some discussion disparaged reliance on mathematical econometric models. Other techniques, judgmental or consensus-seeking kinds of activity, were proposed, and a variety of several techniques advocated. Perhaps a variety of sources of forecasts should be examined. It was also suggested that aggregate models should be broken down into component quantities, and other factors of one kind or another introduced into the component analysis. Results might be better in forecasting component parts, rather than aggregates. (Author)

• Record URL:
  • https://onlinepubs.trb.org/Onlinepubs/trcircular/230/230-017.pdf
• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/issn/00978515
• Supplemental Notes:
  • Report of a Workshop sponsored by the Committee on Aviation Demand Forecasting of the Transportation Research Board, held at the National Academy of Sciences, Washington, D.C., March 26-27, 1981. Distribution, posting, or copying of this PDF is strictly prohibited without written permission of the Transportation Research Board of the National Academy of Sciences. Unless otherwise indicated, all materials in this PDF are copyrighted by the National Academy of Sciences. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
• Corporate Authors:

  Transportation Research Board

  500 Fifth Street, NW
  Washington, DC  United States  20001
• Authors:
  • Simpson, R W
• Publication Date: 1981-8

Media Info

• Media Type: Digital/other
• Features: Figures;
• Pagination: p. 43-49
• Serial:
  • Transportation Research Circular
  • Issue Number: 230
  • Publisher: Transportation Research Board
  • ISSN: 0097-8515

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Accuracy; Aviation; Costs; Econometric models; Economic forecasting; Fuels; Methodology; Passenger miles; Revenues; Reviews; Urban growth
• Subject Areas: Aviation; Economics; Energy; Finance; Highways; Planning and Forecasting; I10: Economics and Administration;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00342101
• Record Type: Publication
• Files: TRIS, TRB
• Created Date: Dec 22 1981 12:00AM