THE MACRO BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT

The Macro Business Environment Group discussed only major factors in general business directly affecting the air transportation industry. Those of greatest concern are: gross national product, inflation rate, fuel availability and price, employment, international tensions, and capability of the industry to attract capital. The GNP is expected to increase at a rate of between 2.2 and 3.5 percent per year between 1981 and 2000. Due to continued growth of the general economy and decreasing growth of the work force, unemployment will moderate slowly. Productivity for the total economy will increase by two percent per year. Because of increased use of alternative energy sources and more efficient use of oil, there will be no long-term crude oil supply shortage through 2000, barring political factors. There will be an increase in international political risk in the short term, followed by a leveling off at a higher level than at present. There will be no major war in the near term involving superpower intervention. The airline industry will continue to be perceived as a below average investment opportunity. Because of the higher cost of capital, fewer profitable airlines are expected to survive.

• Record URL:
  • https://onlinepubs.trb.org/Onlinepubs/trcircular/230/230-001.pdf
• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/issn/00978515
• Supplemental Notes:
  • Report of a Workshop sponsored by the Committee on Aviation Demand Forecasting of the Transportation Research Board, held at the National Academy of Sciences, Washington, D.C., March 26-27, 1981. Distribution, posting, or copying of this PDF is strictly prohibited without written permission of the Transportation Research Board of the National Academy of Sciences. Unless otherwise indicated, all materials in this PDF are copyrighted by the National Academy of Sciences. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
• Corporate Authors:

  Transportation Research Board

  500 Fifth Street, NW
  Washington, DC  United States  20001
• Authors:
  • Hannan, B F
• Publication Date: 1981-8

Media Info

• Media Type: Digital/other
• Pagination: p. 3-4
• Serial:
  • Transportation Research Circular
  • Issue Number: 230
  • Publisher: Transportation Research Board
  • ISSN: 0097-8515

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Aviation; Conferences; Economic forecasting; Equipment; Forecasting; Fuels; Trend (Statistics)
• Subject Areas: Aviation; Economics; Energy; Highways; Society; I10: Economics and Administration;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00342085
• Record Type: Publication
• Files: TRIS, TRB
• Created Date: Dec 22 1981 12:00AM