TRANSPORTATION ENERGY REQUIREMENTS TO THE YEAR 2010

The potential reduction in energy use in the transportation sector through the year 2010 is studied in the context of a strong national policy of conservation. Results discussed are based on plausible, near-term technologies with a minimum impact on lifestyles. Projections are made for efficiency improvements and demand growth for each transportation mode, and from these future energy requirements are derived. A baseline case in which there is little shift in the type of fuel used by the various modes shows a reduction in energy use from 21.7 EJ in 1978 to 13.9 EJ in 2010. The demand for oil was reduced from 20.9 to 13.2 EJ. A minimum oil case, based on the maximum practical substitution of electricity for oil, gives an additional reduction in oil demand of 0.8 EJ. Additional oil savings could result from the substitution of natural gas for oil. Other large reductions in energy use, on the order of 1.5 to 2.0 EJ, could result from major technology improvements while a further 1.5 to 2.0 EJ could be saved at the expense of speed, convenience, comfort, and probably, safety. Electric vehicles are projected to be limited to short-range (.150 km) applications. Although battery technology will probably advance to the point that longer-range (200 to 300 km) vehicles are practical, the additional weight and cost of the batteries will probably offset any energy or cost advantage for these vehicles. If coal becomes the primary fuel used, there appears to be little, if any, energy savings from using electricity as compared to converting the coal to synthetic liquid fuels. (ERA citation 06:020419)

• Corporate Authors:

  Oak Ridge National Laboratory

  P. O. Box 2008
  Oak Ridge, TN  United States  37831

  Department of Energy

  1000 Independence Avenue, SW
  Washington, DC  United States  20585
• Authors:
  • Samuels, G
• Publication Date: 1981-4

Media Info

• Pagination: 97 p.

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Demand; Economics; Electric batteries; Electric vehicles; Energy; Energy conservation; Energy consumption; Forecasting; Fuel conservation; Fuel consumption; Fuel substitution; Market research; Natural gas; Petroleum; Technology; Transportation; Trend (Statistics)
• Uncontrolled Terms: Data; Energy efficiency; Transportation systems
• Geographic Terms: United States
• Old TRIS Terms: Energy demand; Transportation sector
• Subject Areas: Economics; Energy; Transportation (General); Vehicles and Equipment; I96: Vehicle Operating Costs;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00344311
• Record Type: Publication
• Source Agency: National Technical Information Service
• Contract Numbers: W-7405-ENG-26
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: Nov 23 1982 12:00AM