Development of a Mode Choice Model to Estimate Evacuation Transit Demand
Since Hurricane Katrina, transit evacuation service has been seen to serve critical needs in affected cities and an increasing number of hurricanes have struck the east coast where more people rely on public transportation to evacuate. Thus, it is important to model mode choice in evacuation for a better estimation of evacuation transit demand. In this study, a joint mode and destination type choice model was estimated based on multiple post-storm behavioral surveys from the northeastern seaboard to the Gulf Coast. A nested logit model specification was used to estimate this joint choice model. The estimated model showed significant linkage between mode and destination type choice, which validated the choice of a nested structure for the model. Selected variables include both household and zonal characteristics, reflecting the attributes of alternatives, the characteristics of households, and the interactions between them. Most of the selected variables are significant at a confidence level of 95%. The estimated model was then applied in two different cases and the prediction errors are small. This study also estimated a new model in a situation that zonal data is only available at a relatively coarse level. The new estimated model was applied in three different cases. The prediction errors in all cases are larger in comparison with the previous applications, but they are still within an acceptable range. Overall, the findings of this study provide insight into the factors affecting mode and destination type choice of residents during hurricane evacuation. It also provides discussion on model transferability in applications with different characteristics.
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Corporate Authors:
Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
Baton Rouge, LA United States 70803Louisiana Department of Transportation and Development
1201 Capitol Access Road, P.O. Box 94245
Baton Rouge, LA United States 70804-9245Federal Highway Administration
1200 New Jersey Avenue, SE
Washington, DC United States 20590 -
Authors:
- Wilmot, Chester
- Bian, Ruijie
- Gudishala, Ravindra
- Publication Date: 2019-10
Language
- English
Media Info
- Media Type: Digital/other
- Edition: Final Report
- Features: Figures; References; Tables;
- Pagination: 89p
Subject/Index Terms
- TRT Terms: Choice models; Demand; Evacuation; Hurricanes; Logits; Mode choice; Public transit
- Geographic Terms: Gulf Coast (United States)
- Subject Areas: Operations and Traffic Management; Planning and Forecasting; Public Transportation; Security and Emergencies;
Filing Info
- Accession Number: 01725720
- Record Type: Publication
- Report/Paper Numbers: FHWA/LA.16/592, LTRC Project Number: 14-3SS, SIO Number: DOTLT1000104
- Files: NTL, TRIS, ATRI, USDOT, STATEDOT
- Created Date: Dec 20 2019 4:23PM