FORECASTS OF PASSENGER AND AIR-CARGO ACTIVITY AT LOGAN INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT

This paper summarizes the results of a recently completed aviation-forecasting project conducted for Logan International Airport, Boston's major metropolitan air facility. Independent procedures are developed for forecasting certificated air-carrier (domestic and international), commuter, general aviation, and air-cargo traffic. Data are drawn from several sources, which include airport records and Federal Aviation Administration and Civil Aeronautics Board publications. To the greatest extent possible, multiple-regression techniques are employed to identify the factors responsible for historic changes in activity levels. Simple forecasting models are then used to predict aviation activity under alternative scenarios; these show that air-passenger and air-cargo volumes are likely to increase at the rate of approximately 5 percent per year. The exact growth rate will depend most heavily on changes in regional income and on costs and fares. Growth in aircraft operations will be lower, due to projected increases in airplane sizes and load factors but will still be significant. In addition to their primary use in planning at Logan, the results shed light on broad issues in aviation forecasting. One important implication is that the effects of rate and route deregulation on activity at major airports are likely to be minor in comparison with changes in economic conditions and fuel prices. (Authors)

• Record URL:
  http://onlinepubs.trb.org/Onlinepubs/trr/1980/768/768-008.pdf
• Record URL:
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• Supplemental Notes:
  • Publication of this paper sponsored by Committee on Aviation Demand Forecasting. Distribution, posting, or copying of this PDF is strictly prohibited without written permission of the Transportation Research Board of the National Academy of Sciences. Unless otherwise indicated, all materials in this PDF are copyrighted by the National Academy of Sciences. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved
• Authors:
  • Mellman, Robert
  • NELSON, MICHAEL
  • Piro, Jane
• Publication Date: 1980

Media Info

• Media Type: Print
• Features: References; Tables;
• Pagination: pp 42-50
• Monograph Title: Aviation forecasting and systems analyses
• Serial:
  • Transportation Research Record
  • Issue Number: 768
  • Publisher: Transportation Research Board
  • ISSN: 0361-1981

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Air transportation; Airports; Aviation; Commodities; Costs; Economic factors; Fares; Forecasting; Freight transportation; Passengers; Regression analysis; Traffic volume; Urban areas
• Identifier Terms: Logan International Airport
• Subject Areas: Aviation; Data and Information Technology; Economics; Finance; Freight Transportation; Highways; Passenger Transportation; Planning and Forecasting; Terminals and Facilities; I10: Economics and Administration;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00331268
• Record Type: Publication
• ISBN: 0309031125
• Files: TRIS, TRB
• Created Date: Oct 28 1981 12:00AM