Model-based techno-economic evaluation of fuel cell vehicles considering technology uncertainties

The future of fuel cell electric vehicle (FCEV) depends on its cost and performance competitiveness in the automobile market. In this study, the authors develop a techno-economic analysis framework to compare the cost and performance of major vehicle technologies (internal combustion, hybrid, plug-in hybrid, battery and fuel cell electric) under various progress scenarios for the years 2035 and 2050. The authors utilize a vehicle powertrain model to compare vehicle technologies with similar engineering performance and evaluate their cost competitiveness. The authors define the cost as (2018) U.S. dollars per mile driven ($/mile) during a certain ownership period and include the vehicle purchase price and fuel cost. The authors' results show that, in the 2035 scenarios, the costs per mile for FCEVs are 36% or 22% higher than those of conventional gasoline cars, based on a 5-year or 15-year ownership period, respectively. In the 2050 scenarios, the 15-year ownership costs of FCEVs are comparable to those of gasoline cars with comparable engineering performance. In all the 2035 and 2050 scenarios, fuel cell vehicles have a lower driving cost compared with electric vehicles with 200-mile driving range. The authors' sensitivity analysis suggests that hydrogen price and fuel cell system cost are the major uncertainties that determine cost competitiveness of FCEVs.

• Record URL:
  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2019.08.002
• Record URL:
  http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1361920918312562
• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/issn/13619209
• Supplemental Notes:
  • © 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Abstract reprinted with permission of Elsevier.
• Authors:
  • Chen, Yuche
  • 0000-0003-2577-2448
  • Melaina, Marc
• Publication Date: 2019-9

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Web
• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: pp 234-244
• Serial:
  • Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment
  • Volume: 74
  • Issue Number: 0
  • Publisher: Elsevier
  • ISSN: 1361-9209
  • Serial URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/13619209

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Automobile ownership; Costs; Economic analysis; Fuel cell vehicles; Technology; Uncertainty; Vehicle performance
• Subject Areas: Data and Information Technology; Economics; Energy; Highways; Vehicles and Equipment;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01717505
• Record Type: Publication
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: Sep 19 2019 3:07PM