How Human Mobility Impacts Outbreaks: A Network Modeling Framework with an Application to Dengue in Sri Lanka

The authors modeled the spatial-temporal dynamics of a large dengue outbreak in the Negombo region in Sri Lanka as a function of human mobility patterns, land use and climate data. The analysis was conducted at a 1 km × 1 km spatial scale and a weekly temporal scale. Their results indicate human mobility to be a significantly stronger indicator for local outbreak clusters when compared to land use and climate factors. The minimum daily temperature was identified as the most influential climate variables on the dengue cases in a region: while among the set of land use factors considered, urban areas were found to be most prone to dengue outbreak, followed by areas with stagnant water and coastal areas in the study region. The results are shown to be robust across spatial scales, and also presented for a coarser resolution of 5 km × 5 km. In addition to illustrating the realtive relationship between various potential risk factors for dengue outbreaks, the results of the authors' study can be used to predict where and when new cases of dengue are likely to occur, and thus help more effectively plan and apply disease surveillance and vector control measures within a region.

• Supplemental Notes:
  • This paper was sponsored by TRB committee ADB30 Standing Committee on Transportation Network Modeling.
• Corporate Authors:

  Transportation Research Board

  ,    
• Authors:
  • Zhang, Ying
  • Riera, Jefferson
  • Ostrow, Kayla
  • Siddique, Sauleh
  • de Silva, Harendra
  • Sarkar, Sahotra
  • Fernando, Lakkumar
  • Gardner, Lauren
• Conference:
  • Transportation Research Board 98th Annual Meeting
  • Location: Washington DC, United States
  • Date: 2019-1-13 to 2019-1-17
• Date: 2019

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Digital/other
• Features: References; Tables;
• Pagination: 4p

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Diseases and medical conditions; Epidemiology; Migration; Mobility; Travel patterns
• Uncontrolled Terms: Spatial-temporal patterns
• Geographic Terms: Sri Lanka
• Subject Areas: Planning and Forecasting; Safety and Human Factors; Society; Transportation (General);

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01698245
• Record Type: Publication
• Report/Paper Numbers: 19-02681
• Files: TRIS, TRB, ATRI
• Created Date: Mar 1 2019 3:51PM