Alternative Model Structures for Multivariate Crash Frequency Analysis: Comparing Simulation-based Multivariate Model with Copula-based Multivariate Model

In safety literature, there are two ways to incorporate the potential correlation between multiple crash frequency variables: (1) simulation-based approach and (2) analytical closed form approach. The current research effort proposed a comparison between simulation-based multivariate model and copula-based closed form approach to analyze zonal level crash counts for different crash types. The empirical analysis is based on traffic analysis zone (TAZ) level crash count data for both motorized and non-motorized crashes from Central Florida for the year 2016. A comprehensive set of exogenous variables including roadway, built environment, land-use, traffic, socio-demographic and spatial spillover characteristics are considered for the analysis. The resulting data fit and prediction performance offered by the copula-based approach clearly highlights the copula-based approach’s superiority over the simulation-based multivariate model. The applicability of the model for hot zone identification is illustrated by generating plots identifying hot and cold zones by crash type in the Central Florida region.

• Supplemental Notes:
  • This paper was sponsored by TRB committee ANB20 Standing Committee on Safety Data, Analysis and Evaluation.
• Corporate Authors:

  Transportation Research Board

  ,    
• Authors:
  • Bhowmik, Tanmoy
  • Rahman, Moshiur
  • Yasmin, Shamsunnahar
  • Eluru, Naveen
• Conference:
  • Transportation Research Board 98th Annual Meeting
  • Location: Washington DC, United States
  • Date: 2019-1-13 to 2019-1-17
• Date: 2019

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Digital/other
• Features: Figures; Maps; References; Tables;
• Pagination: 11p

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Crash characteristics; Crash data; Crash rates; High risk locations; Mathematical models; Traffic analysis zones
• Geographic Terms: Central Florida
• Subject Areas: Data and Information Technology; Highways; Safety and Human Factors;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01698163
• Record Type: Publication
• Report/Paper Numbers: 19-05507
• Files: TRIS, TRB, ATRI
• Created Date: Mar 1 2019 3:51PM