Modeling adoption timing of autonomous vehicles: innovation diffusion approach

Autonomous vehicles (AVs) are expected to act as an economically-disruptive transportation technology offering several benefits to the society and causing significant changes in travel behavior and network performance. However, one of the critical issues that policymakers are facing is the absence of a sound estimation of their market penetration. This study is an effort to quantify the effect of different drivers on the adoption timing of AVs. To this end, we develop an innovation diffusion model in which individuals’ propensities to adopt a new technology such as AVs takes influence from a desire to innovate and a need to imitate the rest of the society. It also captures various sources of inter-personal heterogeneity. We found that conditional on our assumptions regarding the changes in market price of AVs over time, their market penetration in our study region (Chicago metropolitan area) will eventually reach 71.3%. Further, model estimation results show that a wide range of socio-demographic factors, travel pattern indicators, technology awareness, and perceptions of AVs are influential in people’s AV adoption timing decision. For instance, frequent long-distance travelers are found to make the adoption decision more innovatively while those who have experienced an accident in their lifetime are found to be more influenced by word of mouth.

• Record URL:
  • https://doi.org/10.1007/s11116-018-9947-7
• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/issn/00494488
• Supplemental Notes:
  • Copyright © 2018, Springer Science+Business Media New York. The contents of this paper reflect the views of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official views or policies of the Transportation Research Board or the National Academy of Sciences.
• Authors:
  • Shabanpour, Ramin
  • Shamshiripour, Ali
  • 0000-0002-6358-5144
  • Mohammadian, Abolfazl
• Publication Date: 2018-11

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Web
• Features: References;
• Pagination: pp 1607-1621
• Serial:
  • Transportation
  • Volume: 45
  • Issue Number: 6
  • Publisher: Springer
  • ISSN: 0049-4488
  • EISSN: 1572-9435
  • Serial URL: http://link.springer.com/journal/11116

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Automobile ownership; Autonomous vehicles; Markets; Technological innovations
• Uncontrolled Terms: Adoption models
• Geographic Terms: Chicago (Illinois)
• Subject Areas: Highways; Planning and Forecasting; Vehicles and Equipment;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01691571
• Record Type: Publication
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: Jan 28 2019 10:13AM