Metro disruption management: Optimal initiation time of substitute bus services under uncertain system recovery time

Determining the initiation time of substitute bus (SB) services is critical for metro disruption management, especially under uncertain recovery time. This study develops a mathematical formulation to determine the optimal initiation time (OIT) of SB services by trading-off their initiation cost and passenger delay cost, thereby minimizing the total system cost. Given the probability distribution of metro disruption duration, the authors determine the OIT by formulating an optimization problem to minimize the expected total system cost. The authors then conduct sensitivity analyses of the initiation cost of SB services, passenger value of time, and SB services rate. The results show that SB services ought to be activated only if the metro incident lasts longer than a certain time interval, depending on the factors mentioned earlier, and the OIT should advance with the predicted incident duration. This paper derives analytical results for the case of linear passenger arrival, and determines the results numerically for the case of non-linear passenger arrival when analytical closed-form solutions are not available. The findings will facilitate transit operators to develop response plans in the aftermath of a metro disruption.

• Record URL:
  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trc.2018.11.001
• Record URL:
  http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0968090X18305023
• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/issn/0968090X
• Supplemental Notes:
  • © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Abstract reprinted with permission of Elsevier.
• Authors:
  • Zhang, Shuyang
  • Lo, Hong K
• Publication Date: 2018-12

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Web
• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: pp 409-427
• Serial:
  • Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies
  • Volume: 97
  • Issue Number: 0
  • Publisher: Elsevier
  • ISSN: 0968-090X
  • Serial URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/0968090X

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Bus transit operations; Optimization; Rapid transit; Sensitivity analysis; Service disruption; Special purpose buses; Uncertainty
• Subject Areas: Operations and Traffic Management; Planning and Forecasting; Public Transportation;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01687660
• Record Type: Publication
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: Dec 4 2018 10:11AM