The Quantitative Assessment of Debris Flow Risk to Road Users on the Scottish Trunk Road Network: A83 Rest and be Thankful

This report presents scenarios for a vehicle colliding with debris flow. A methodology was developed for a Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) for the impact of debris flow on road users, and the methodology was first used at the A83 Rest and be Thankful highway in Scotland. The methodology calculates the probability of an event, and of a vehicle being affected, with occurrence of damage or fatalities. Personal Individual Risk (PIR) is used to calculate fatality probabilities for commuters and truck drivers, and it is found that these fall within tolerable limits. Potential effects of climate change on the magnitude and frequency of incidents on the A83 road are complex, with frequency and magnitude closely connected. The authors believe that theirs is the first full QRA on the risks of debris flow to road users, and they emphasize that the probabilities presented are low and not intended as prediction. The intention is to build on earlier work on landslide hazards and to help with decision making in risk reduction investment at the right sites, and to the proper extent.


  • English

Media Info

  • Media Type: Digital/other
  • Features: Figures; Maps; Photos; References; Tables;
  • Pagination: 74p

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 01690279
  • Record Type: Publication
  • ISBN: 9781912433568
  • Report/Paper Numbers: PPR798, TS TR MFA 2012-008
  • Files: TRIS
  • Created Date: Dec 28 2018 2:03PM