A METHOD FOR FORECASTING CAR-OWNERSHIP IN LOCAL AREAS USING NATIONAL TRAVEL SURVEY DATA

The method currently preferred for forecasting the growth in car-ownership in local areas is the causal approach developed for the early urban transportation studies. This approach has been applied in many urban areas using local data to determine the model parameters. Recent work has suggested that it might be possible to use relationships developed from the national travel survey data to provide forecasts similar to those from relationships based on local data. This paper puts forward a cheap and simple method for estimating future car-ownership in local areas using information about present car-ownership and assumptions about future economic growth. The basis of the method is described briefly, together with an example of its application.(a) (TRRL)

• Corporate Authors:

  Department for Transport, England

  Great Minster House, 76 Marsham Street
  London,   England  SW1P 4DR
• Authors:
  • Hayfield, C P
• Publication Date: 1979-12

Media Info

• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: 47 p.

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Automobile ownership; City planning; Data analysis; Economic development; Economic growth; Economics; Forecasting; Mathematical analysis; Methodology; Motor vehicles; Ownership; Traffic surveys
• Uncontrolled Terms: Growth rate
• ITRD Terms: 255: Economics; 132: Forecast; 265: Growth rate; 9102: Method; 676: Traffic survey; 315: Vehicle ownership
• Subject Areas: Economics; Highways; Planning and Forecasting; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00322058
• Record Type: Publication
• Source Agency: Transport Research Laboratory
• Report/Paper Numbers: Working Paper 12 Monograph
• Files: ITRD, TRIS
• Created Date: Jan 19 1981 12:00AM