REVIEW AND COMPILATION OF DEMAND FORECASTING EXPERIENCES: AN AGGREGATION OF ESTIMATION PROCEDURES

It has long been recognized that there is a need in urban transportation planning for the development of a "fast response" procedure which would allow the determination of passenger travel on an urban areawide level. This report attempts to fill this critical knowledge gap, relying heavily on the historical performance of the various elements of the urban transport planning process developed over the past two decades. Demand-forecasting experiences were collected from over 60 percent of the urban areas in the U.S. cities were classified into four cells, based on their population size and urban structure. The delineation of the proper classification scheme was based on a statistical analysis on the base travel pattern of the various cities including their socioeconomic tabulations of demand elasticities, which are reported in conjunction with the base conditions under which they were obtained. In order to analyze the travel impacts of transportation system implementation, a detailed method of approximating the aggregate urban area total system supply curve is also presented. The city classification scheme, the tabulation of elasticities and the representation of an urban transportation system are verified through a limited number of case studies. Finally, the applications of the parameters and equations tabulated in this report are demonstrated via a step-by-step user-oriented procedure.

• Record URL:
  • https://ntlrepository.blob.core.windows.net/docs/372AEP.html
• Corporate Authors:

  Pennsylvania State University, University Park

  Pennsylvania Transportation Institute, Transportation Research Building
  University Park, PA  United States  16802

  Department of Transportation

  Office of University Research, 1200 New Jersey Avenue, SE
  Washington, DC  United States  20590
• Authors:
  • Chan, Y
• Publication Date: 1979-8

Media Info

• Pagination: 340 p.

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Case studies; Estimates; Forecasting; Socioeconomic factors; Statistical analysis; Transportation planning; Travel demand; Travel patterns; Urban areas; Urban transportation
• Subject Areas: Data and Information Technology; Economics; Highways; Planning and Forecasting; Public Transportation; Society; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00318904
• Record Type: Publication
• Source Agency: National Technical Information Service
• Report/Paper Numbers: DOT-P-30-80-25
• Contract Numbers: DOT-OS-60146
• Files: NTIS, NTL, TRIS, USDOT
• Created Date: Oct 27 1981 12:00AM