FORECASTING TRANSIT RIDERSHIP IN SMALLER COMMUNITIES

As the attention being given to transit planning for smaller communities increases, more accurate ridership forecasts are being required. In smaller areas, basic data for these forecasts remain scarce, but a number of successful techniques have been designed to overcome this lack of original data. Among the techniques developed for use by small cities and rural areas in Florida is a first-cut, sketch-planning estimate that roughly forecasts the annual numbers of riders, vehicles, and equipment kilometers. This technique can also be used to estimate capital costs and yearly operating costs. If, on the basis of the initial forecasts, a community decides to pursue a transit plan, additional ridership forecasts will be necessary. Particulary for fixed-route systems, the latent-demand and direct-demand forecasting techniques can be very useful. These two techniques and the results of the initial survey can provide a cost-effective basis that local officials can use in deciding on the most appropriate transit plan for their area. (Author)

• Record URL:
  • https://onlinepubs.trb.org/Onlinepubs/sr/sr187/187-010.pdf
• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/issn/0360859X
• Supplemental Notes:
  • This paper appeared in TRB Special Report 187, Transportation Planning for Small and Medium-Sized Communities, Proceedings of a Workshop sponsored by UMTA and FHWA, conducted by TRB, Sarasota, Florida, 3-6 December 1978. Distribution, posting, or copying of this PDF is strictly prohibited without written permission of the Transportation Research Board of the National Academy of Sciences. Unless otherwise indicated, all materials in this PDF are copyrighted by the National Academy of Sciences. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
• Corporate Authors:

  Transportation Research Board

  500 Fifth Street, NW
  Washington, DC  United States  20001
• Authors:
  • Corradino, Joseph C
• Conference:
  • Workshop on Transportation Planning for Small and Medium-Sized Communities
  • Location: Sarasota Florida, United States
  • Date: 1978-12-3 to 1978-12-6
• Publication Date: 1980

Media Info

• Media Type: Digital/other
• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: pp 24-29
• Monograph Title: TRANSPORTATION PLANNING FOR SMALL AND MEDIUM-SIZED COMMUNITIES. PROCEEDINGS OF A WORKSHOP
• Serial:
  • Transportation Research Board Special Report
  • Issue Number: 187
  • Publisher: Transportation Research Board
  • ISSN: 0360-859X

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Cost effectiveness; Forecasting; Operating costs; Public transit; Ridership; Rural areas; Small cities; Socioeconomic factors; Transportation planning; Travel demand
• Subject Areas: Economics; Highways; Planning and Forecasting; Public Transportation; Society;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00311211
• Record Type: Publication
• Files: TRIS, TRB, ATRI
• Created Date: Jul 22 1981 12:00AM