Rebound effects in UK road freight transport

This paper analyses aggregate time-series data to estimate the direct rebound effect in UK road freight over the period 1970–2014. The authorsinvestigate 25 different model specifications, conduct a comprehensive set of diagnostic tests to evaluate the robustness of these specifications and estimate the rebound effect using three different elasticities. Using the mean of the statistically significant estimates from these specifications, the authors estimate a direct rebound effect of 61% - which is larger than previous estimates in the literature and almost twice as large as the consensus estimate of direct rebound effects in road passenger transport. Using the mean of the estimates from the authors' most robust models, the authors estimate a slightly lower direct rebound effect of 49%. The authors' estimates are fairly consistent between different model specifications and different metrics, although individual estimates range from 21% to 137%. The authors also find that an increasing proportion of UK road freight is being undertaken by foreign registered vehicles, and that increases in the vehicle weight limits have encouraged more freight activity. The authors highlight the significant limitations imposed by the use of aggregate time series data and recommend that further studies in this area employ data from vehicle use surveys.

• Record URL:
  • https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2018.05.006
• Record URL:
  • http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1361920917310088
• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/issn/13619209
• Supplemental Notes:
  • © 2018 SteveSorrell and LeeStapleton. Published by Elsevier Ltd. Abstract reprinted with permission of Elsevier.
• Authors:
  • Sorrell, Steve
  • Stapleton, Lee
  • 0000-0001-8304-9392
• Publication Date: 2018-8

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Web
• Features: Appendices; Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: pp 156-174
• Serial:
  • Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment
  • Volume: 63
  • Issue Number: 0
  • Publisher: Elsevier
  • ISSN: 1361-9209
  • Serial URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/13619209

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Costs; Economic elasticity; Freight transportation; Highway transportation; Motor fuels; Time series analysis; Trucks
• Uncontrolled Terms: Rebound effect
• Geographic Terms: United Kingdom
• Subject Areas: Economics; Freight Transportation; Highways; Planning and Forecasting;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01680522
• Record Type: Publication
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: Sep 17 2018 10:32AM