Robust Prioritization Framework for Transport Infrastructure Adaptation Investments under Uncertainty of Climate Change

To create and sustain resilient infrastructure systems, decision makers must consider a changing climate in their design and maintenance planning. However, significant barriers exist to constrain the understanding and implementation of climate change considerations, including the inherent uncertainty in climate change model projections. The high level of uncertainty related to climate projections makes the engineering planning process difficult because it is impossible to fully know future climate conditions relative to historical design standards. This paper seeks to address this challenge by introducing a new method for calculating robust decisions rooted in existing decision theory and uncertainty. This paper details the framework used for the new decision-making process and describes how the framework can provide guidance about achieving low-regret adaptation options for resilient road infrastructure design. A case study of a province in Mexico illustrates the application of the framework to an actual transportation planning effort.

• Record URL:
  • https://doi.org/10.1061/AJRUA6.0000852
• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/issn/23767642
• Supplemental Notes:
  • © 2015 American Society of Civil Engineers.
• Authors:
  • Espinet, Xavier
  • Schweikert, Amy
  • Chinowsky, Paul
• Publication Date: 2017-3

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Web
• Features: References;
• Pagination: E4015001
• Serial:
  • ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering
  • Volume: 3
  • Issue Number: 1
  • Publisher: American Society of Civil Engineers
  • ISSN: 2376-7642
  • Serial URL: https://ascelibrary.org/journal/ajrua6

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Case studies; Climate change; Climate change adaptation; Decision making; Disaster resilience; Highway design; Infrastructure; Transportation planning; Uncertainty
• Geographic Terms: Mexico
• Subject Areas: Highways; Planning and Forecasting; Security and Emergencies;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01681395
• Record Type: Publication
• Files: TRIS, ASCE
• Created Date: Sep 20 2018 4:37PM