Uncertainty in risk of highway bridges assessed for integrated seismic and flood hazards

Probabilistic risk assessment for bridges under natural hazards is of great interest to engineers for the development of risk mitigation strategies and implementation plans. The present study evaluates risk of an existing highway bridge in California, USA, under the integrated impact of regional seismic and flood hazards. A sensitivity study combining tornado diagram and first-order second moment reliability analyses is conducted to screen significant uncertain parameters to which bridge response is mostly sensitive. A rigorous uncertainty analysis, employing random sampling and Monte Carlo simulation techniques, is performed to obtain variations in fragility and risk curves of the bridge. Observed variations in risk curves at various risk levels are quantified through 90% confidence intervals and coefficients of variation (COV) of risk. It is observed that uncertainty in the estimated risk increases due to the presence of flood hazard at the bridge site, although mean risk does not vary with flood hazard level. Research outcome signifies that the variation in risk due to parameter uncertainty and varied flood hazard level should not be ignored to ensure bridge safety under the stated multi-hazard condition.

• Record URL:
  • https://doi.org/10.1080/15732479.2017.1402065
• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/issn/15732479
• Supplemental Notes:
  • © 2017 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group. Abstract republished with permission of Taylor & Francis.
• Authors:
  • Yilmaz, Taner
  • Banerjee, Swagata
  • Johnson, Peggy A
• Publication Date: 2018-9

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Web
• Features: Figures; References;
• Pagination: pp 1182-1196
• Serial:
  • Structure and Infrastructure Engineering
  • Volume: 14
  • Issue Number: 9
  • Publisher: Taylor & Francis
  • ISSN: 1573-2479
  • EISSN: 1744-8980
  • Serial URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/loi/nsie20

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Earthquakes; Floods; Highway bridges; Monte Carlo method; Risk assessment; Sensitivity analysis; Uncertainty
• Geographic Terms: California
• Subject Areas: Bridges and other structures; Highways; Planning and Forecasting; Security and Emergencies;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01675078
• Record Type: Publication
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: Jul 18 2018 9:51AM