Development of estimated models of the number of potholes with the statistical optimization method

The objective of this paper is to determine a predictive model that uses the harmony search algorithm (HSA) based on available the multi-regression equation. The model employs the least squares method to predict the number of potholes in the Seoul metropolitan area. Independent variables were determined, based on traffic and weather data for each month in Seoul. Prior to the development of predictive models, empirical and stochastic factors that affect the occurrence of potholes were determined, resulting in a standardized regression coefficient from multi-linear regression analysis. A best-fit equation was derived from experiments using independent variables obtained from empirical and analytical approaches. The empirically and analytically filtered factors for each road management area in Seoul were used to develop the predictive models for the multiple regression analysis and the HSA. Fourteen predictive models were determined in this study. A performance comparison between these predictive models was conducted using the P-value, the root mean squared error, and the coefficient of determination.

• Record URL:
  • https://doi.org/10.1007/s12205-017-1087-7
• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/issn/12267988
• Supplemental Notes:
  • © Korean Society of Civil Engineers and Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2017.
• Authors:
  • Lee, Sangyum
  • Kim, Dowan
  • Mun, Sungho
• Publication Date: 2017-11

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Digital/other
• Features: Figures; References;
• Pagination: pp 2683-2694
• Serial:
  • KSCE Journal of Civil Engineering
  • Volume: 21
  • Issue Number: 7
  • Publisher: Korean Society of Civil Engineers
  • ISSN: 1226-7988
  • EISSN: 1976-3808
  • Serial URL: http://link.springer.com/journal/12205

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Least squares method; Mathematical models; Mathematical prediction; Multiple regression analysis; Optimization; Potholes
• Geographic Terms: Seoul (Korea)
• Subject Areas: Highways; Maintenance and Preservation; Pavements; Planning and Forecasting;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01679229
• Record Type: Publication
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: Aug 27 2018 2:05PM