The Spatial Effect of Socio-Economic Demographics on Transit Ridership: a Case Study in New York

Demand for vehicle and public transportation systems continues to increase in and around major urban centers. This increase is especially pronounced during the morning and evening commutes and is further complicated by the complex spatial interactions that influence the variation in system demand. In an effort to help agencies better understand this variability and develop better demand forecasts this research investigated the underlying factors impacting public transportation ridership regardless of transit mode, then uses this insight to estimate specific models to help forecast changes in subway ridership. The spatial database for the case study consisted of social, economic, and land use characteristics for the 2166 census tracts in the five boroughs of New York City, NY. The spatial models were found to have a better overall model fit compared to their non-spatial counterparts. Moreover, spatial dependence was found to be statistically significant in both models. Failure to account for spatial dependence in estimating public transportation use at the census tract or station level could lead to biased, inefficient or inconsistent parameter estimates. The completed research can help public agencies better address resource allocation by identifying locations that are over or underperforming in terms of expected ridership or identifying locations for network expansion.

• Record URL:
  • http://www.utrc2.org/sites/default/files/Final-Report-The-Spatial-Effect-Socio-Economic-Demographics.pdf
• 
• Record URL:
  • https://rosap.ntl.bts.gov/view/dot/36003
• Supplemental Notes:
  • This document was sponsored by the U.S. Department of Transportation, University Transportation Centers Program.
• Corporate Authors:

  Manhattan College

  4513 Manhattan College Pkwy
  Riverdale, NY  United States  10471

  University Transportation Research Center

  City College of New York
  Marshak Hall, Suite 910, 160 Convent Avenue
  New York, NY  United States  10031

  Office of the Assistant Secretary for Research and Technology

  University Transportation Centers Program
  Department of Transportation
  Washington, DC  United States  20590
• Authors:
  • Volovski, Matthew
• Publication Date: 2018-3

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Digital/other
• Edition: Final Report
• Features: Figures; Maps; References; Tables;
• Pagination: 52p

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Case studies; Demographics; Public transit; Ridership; Socioeconomic factors; Spatial analysis; Subways
• Geographic Terms: New York (New York)
• Subject Areas: Planning and Forecasting; Public Transportation;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01671861
• Record Type: Publication
• Contract Numbers: UTRC/RF Grant No: 49198-26-28
• Files: UTC, NTL, TRIS, ATRI, USDOT
• Created Date: Jun 11 2018 8:59AM