Application of Probabilistic Approach for Predicting Pavement Maintenance Requirement: A Case Study on Ontario Highways

In pavement management system (PMS), the time to maintenance is generally estimated based on the predicted condition of the pavement. A deterministic approach is applied in the PMS to estimate the time to maintenance by following the deterioration equation of performance index. However, the probabilistic approach will further estimate the probability of failure over the estimated time to maintenance. For this reason, a probabilistic approach is applied in this study to estimate the probability of failure of pavement based on both overall condition and individual distress. In this approach, the probability of failure is estimated from the distribution of the mean time to maintenance. These mean time to failure or maintenance are calculated from the overall condition of pavement in terms of the pavement condition index (PCI) when the trigger value becomes 65 or less. However, the pavement may expect failure due to any specific distress (if the target value of failure is reached for any individual distress) before reaching the PCI trigger value of failure. For this reason, the probability of failure of each specific distress is also investigated along with the overall condition of the pavement.

• Record URL:
  http://www.tac-atc.ca/sites/default/files/conf_papers/jannatg-app._of_probabilistic_approach_for_predicting_pvmt_maint._requirement.pdf
• 
• Corporate Authors:

  Transportation Association of Canada (TAC)

  401-1111 Prince of Wales Drive
  Ottawa, Ontario  Canada 
• Authors:
  • Jannat, GE
  • TIGHE, SL
• Conference:
  • TAC 2017: Investing in Transportation: Building Canada's Economy - - 2017 Conference and Exhibition of the Transportation Association of Canada
• Publication Date: 2017

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Web
• Pagination: 1 PDF file, 599 KB, 15p.
• Monograph Title: TAC 2017: Investing in Transportation: Building Canada's Economy - - 2017 Conference and Exhibition of the Transportation Association of Canada

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Condition surveys; Conferences; Deterioration; Failure; Forecasting; Maintenance; Mathematical models; Pavement management systems; Pavements; Planning; Probability
• Geographic Terms: Canada
• ITRD Terms: 8018: Canada; 3857: Condition survey; 8525: Conference; 5255: Deterioration; 5520: Failure; 132: Forecast; 3847: Maintenance; 6473: Mathematical model; 2955: Pavement; 3037: Pavement management system; 143: Planning; 6534: Probability
• Subject Areas: Highways; Maintenance and Preservation; Pavements; Planning and Forecasting; I22: Design of Pavements, Railways and Guideways; I60: Maintenance;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01668406
• Record Type: Publication
• Source Agency: Transportation Association of Canada (TAC)
• Files: ITRD, TAC
• Created Date: May 3 2018 3:10PM