The death of a transport regime? The future of electric bicycles and transportation pathways for sustainable mobility in China

This paper has an empirical and theoretical focus: to empirically assess electric bicycle development in China, and to theoretically test and apply the “Multi-Level Perspective” on transitions and innovation. The authors examine the electric bicycle (e-bike) sector in China to understand the future prospects for urban mobility and the interaction of e-bikes as a form of vernacular technology within the existing transport regime. For this purpose, they address the following questions: 1) What factors will influence the future adoption of e-bikes? 2) How are alternative travel modes evaluated against e-bikes? 3) Will e-bikes become a popular sustainable mobility mode in the future or only an intermediary mode to cars? To provide answers, the authors conducted a survey in Nanjing city in order to assess the attitude of e-bike users, and other mode users (e.g. pedestrians; bicycle users). They then analyse responses from this survey through the lens of sociotechnical transitions theory, notably the “Multi-Level Perspective” notions of niches, regimes, and landscape. The paper explores the influential factors underpinning future e-bike adoption and the decision-making calculus behind alternative mode choices. Generalised Linear Models are used to investigate the factors influencing future e-bike adoption and alternative mode choices based on the survey data. The authors conclude that e-bikes are an intermediary mode on Nanjing's motorisation pathway, and that they therefore may eventually reflect a dying regime.

• Record URL:
  • https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2018.02.008
• Record URL:
  • http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162516306801
• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/issn/00401625
• Supplemental Notes:
  • Abstract reprinted with permission of Elsevier.
• Authors:
  • Lin, Xiao
  • Wells, Peter
  • Sovacool, Benjamin K
• Publication Date: 2018-7

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Web
• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: pp 255-267
• Serial:
  • Technological Forecasting and Social Change
  • Volume: 132
  • Publisher: Elsevier Science Publishing Company, Incorporated
  • ISSN: 0040-1625
  • Serial URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/00401625

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Bicycles; Electric vehicles; Mobility; Modal shift; Mode choice; Sustainable transportation
• Geographic Terms: China
• Subject Areas: Pedestrians and Bicyclists; Planning and Forecasting;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01669599
• Record Type: Publication
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: May 22 2018 5:17PM