Driving factors of urban sprawl in Giza governorate of the Greater Cairo Metropolitan Region using a logistic regression model

Since the 1950s, The Greater Cairo Metropolitan Region (GCMR) has witnessed an unprecedented rate of urban sprawl that has been mainly concentrated in arable lands against urban planning regulations, and has presented a critical challenge to the urban environment and serious corrosion for arable lands. Thus, the need to identify the driving factor of sprawl is crucial to understand the future of the GCMR urban environment and to overcome the serious challenges of rapid urbanization. The authors focused on the Giza governorate as a critical area in the GCMR and divided it into three sub-sectors to collect data and analyse. A primary list of driving factors was identified by literature review. Later this list was narrowed down to seven factors after interviews with local urban experts and consideration of the availability of data. Next, a logistic regression analysis was used to evaluate those factors with data derived from existing maps and remotely sensed data for the period of 2004–2013. An operating characteristic (ROC) evaluation of the logistic regression analysis gave high accuracy rates for the entire study area. The findings of the research revealed decreasing significance of the CBD and Nile River as drivers of sprawl. The most significant factors according to the analysis were neighbourhood factors, local urban centres, and accessibility factors of distances to urban uses and major roads. The research suggests more future urban expansion by the existing urban cores and along major roads, leading to more informal urban settlements. It also points to the possibility of persistent deterioration in the urban built environment and agricultural lands. Thus, these findings should be applied to actual urban planning policies, and development regulations should be strengthened to protect the urban environment from further deterioration.

• Record URL:
  • https://doi.org/10.1080/12265934.2016.1162728
• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/issn/12265934
• Supplemental Notes:
  • © 2016 The Institute of Urban Sciences. Abstract reprinted with permission of Taylor & Francis.
• Authors:
  • Osman, Taher
  • Divigalpitiya, Prasanna
  • Arima, Takafumi
• Publication Date: 2016-5

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Web
• Features: References;
• Pagination: pp 206-225
• Serial:
  • International Journal of Urban Sciences
  • Volume: 20
  • Issue Number: 2
  • Publisher: Taylor & Francis
  • ISSN: 1226-5934
  • Serial URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/toc/rjus20/current

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Logistic regression analysis; Urban sprawl; Urbanization
• Geographic Terms: Cairo (Egypt)
• Subject Areas: Highways; Planning and Forecasting; Public Transportation;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01666465
• Record Type: Publication
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: Apr 23 2018 12:13PM