Realising advanced risk-based port state control inspection using data-driven Bayesian networks
In the past decades, maritime transportation not only contributes to economic prosperity, but also renders many threats to the industry, causing huge casualties and losses. As a result, various maritime safety measures have been developed, including Port State Control (PSC) inspections. In this paper, the authors propose a data-driven Bayesian Network (BN) based approach to analyse risk factors influencing PSC inspections, and predict the probability of vessel detention. To do so, inspection data of bulk carriers in seven major European countries from 2005 to 20081In 2008, New Inspection Regime (NIR) was first introduced in Paris MoU port state control. Two sets of data, before and after 2008 are being collected for analysis of the effect of NIR. This paper, as the first phase study, analyses the detention probability before the implementation of NIR.1 in Paris MoU is collected to identify the relevant risk factors. Meanwhile, the network structure is constructed via tree-augmented naive Bayes (TAN) learning and subsequently validated by sensitivity analysis. The results reveal two conclusions: first, the key risk factors influencing PSC inspections include number of deficiencies, type of inspection, Recognised Organisation (RO) and vessel age. Second, the model exploits a novel way to predict the detention probabilities under different situations, which effectively help port authorities to rationalise their inspection regulations as well as allocation of the resources. Further effort will be made to conduct contrastive analysis between ‘Pre-NIR’ period and ‘Post-NIR’ period to test the impact of NIR started in 2008.
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Availability:
- Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/issn/09658564
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Supplemental Notes:
- Abstract reprinted with permission of Elsevier.
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Authors:
- Yang, Zhisen
- Yang, Zaili
- Yin, Jingbo
- Publication Date: 2018-4
Language
- English
Media Info
- Media Type: Web
- Features: Figures; References; Tables;
- Pagination: pp 38-56
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Serial:
- Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice
- Volume: 110
- Publisher: Elsevier
- ISSN: 0965-8564
- Serial URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/09658564
Subject/Index Terms
- TRT Terms: Bayes' theorem; Bulk carriers; Inspection; Maritime safety; Networks; Port authorities; Ports; Resource allocation; Risk; Sensitivity analysis
- Uncontrolled Terms: Port state control
- Geographic Terms: Europe
- Subject Areas: Freight Transportation; Marine Transportation; Planning and Forecasting; Safety and Human Factors; Terminals and Facilities;
Filing Info
- Accession Number: 01666371
- Record Type: Publication
- Files: TRIS
- Created Date: Apr 20 2018 9:08AM