Future scenarios for self-driving vehicles in Sweden

The development of Self-Driving Vehicles (SDVs) is fast, and several vehicle manufacturers have announced that they will launch fully self-driving vehicles to the market around year 2020. SDVs have the potential to disruptively change mobility and transportation - but the question remains open: how will this future look like? In literature, both negative and positive effects of SDVs are listed. Among the positive effects are increased traffic throughput leading to less congestion, improved mobility for people without a driver's license, decreased need for parking spaces, and SDV as an enabler for shared mobility. On the other hand, SDVs are expected to increase the consumption of transport which leads to an increase in total vehicle kilometers travelled. This effect is further reinforced by empty vehicles driving around. This will increase the number of vehicles on the streets and lead to more congestion and increased energy usage. Since the SDV technology is expensive, segregation may be a consequence of the development. In addition there are several challenges related to for example legislation, standardization, infrastructure investments, privacy and security. The question is not if, but rather when SDVs will be common on our streets and roads, and if they will change our way of living, and if so, how? As we are in a potential mobility shift, and decisions made today will affect the future development, understanding possibilities and challenges for the future is important for many stakeholders. To this end a scenario-based future study was performed to derive a common platform for initiation of future research and innovation projects concerning SDVs in Sweden. This study will also be used in the ongoing governmental investigation about future regulations for SDVs on Swedish roads. A third motivation for the study is to shed light on how demography, geography and political landscape can affect the development of new mobility services.


  • English

Media Info

  • Pagination: 35
  • Serial:
    • Issue Number: 2017:07
    • Publisher: KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Sweden
    • ISSN: 1400-1179

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 01664518
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Source Agency: Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute (VTI)
  • ISBN: 9789177294689
  • Files: ITRD, VTI
  • Created Date: Mar 28 2018 10:28AM