Uncertainty and Stochasticity in Traffic Simulation: A Theoretical Framework

This paper attempts to clarify how uncertainty affects stochastic traffic simulation. The nature of uncertainty in both real systems and models is described and compared, distinguishing between heterogeneity and stochasticity. Taxonomy, useful to describe the uncertainty flow throughout a model is introduced, defining uncertainty sources and causes, i.e. mechanisms triggering uncertainty. The proposed conceptual framework is applied to shed light on crucial issues such as error compensation and model overfitting. Eventually, a general framework to manage the uncertainty in a traffic modelling process is introduced and its basic implications on current traffic simulation practice are outlined.

• Supplemental Notes:
  • This paper was sponsored by TRB committee AHB45 Standing Committee on Traffic Flow Theory and Characteristics.
• Authors:
  • Punzo, Vincenzo
  • Montanino, Marcello
• Conference:
  • Transportation Research Board 97th Annual Meeting
  • Location: Washington DC, United States
  • Date: 2018-1-7 to 2018-1-11
• Date: 2018

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Digital/other
• Features: Figures; References;
• Pagination: 13p

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Errors; Estimates; Goodness of fit; Heterogeneity; Mathematical models; Sensitivity analysis; Stochastic processes; Traffic flow theory; Traffic simulation; Uncertainty
• Subject Areas: Highways; Operations and Traffic Management; Planning and Forecasting;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01661049
• Record Type: Publication
• Report/Paper Numbers: 18-05269
• Files: TRIS, TRB, ATRI
• Created Date: Feb 23 2018 4:37PM