Shared Mobility Versus Private Car Ownership: a Multivariate Analysis of Public Interest in Autonomous Vehicles

Autonomous vehicles (AVs) are expected to hit the roads in the near- to mid-term future. Besides, shared mobility services such as car and ride sharing have been gaining momentum in recent years and show prospect for diminishing the need for private car use. Coupling these two emerging mobility trends, shared AVs could further remove the obstacles for widespread use of shared mobility services by providing a low-cost, convenient, and door-to-door travel mode comparable to private car. Therefore, it may be argued that future urban mobility is a public utility and AV private ownership may no longer be necessary. This paper aims to address this question and shed light on whether different mobility options of AVs have complementary, substitute, or no relationship. A multivariate ordered probit model, which accommodates the correlation between AV mobility options, is estimated using a stated preference data from the Puget Sound region in the Washington State. Specifically, the authors investigate public interest in considering AV as an owned asset as well as three shared mobility services: AV rental, AV taxi without a backup driver, and AV taxi with a backup driver present. We find that public interest in the four mobility options have complementary relationship and, thus, it is not true (at least at present) to assume that future urban mobility is purely a public utility. This study also examines explanatory factors including socio-economic, residential location, travel pattern, technology awareness, and psychological factors that shape public interest in AV mobility alternatives.

• Supplemental Notes:
  • This paper was sponsored by TRB committee ADB50 Standing Committee on Transportation Planning Applications.
• Authors:
  • Nazari, Fatemeh
  • Noruzoliaee, Mohamadhossein
  • Mohammadian, Abolfazl
• Conference:
  • Transportation Research Board 97th Annual Meeting
  • Location: Washington DC, United States
  • Date: 2018-1-7 to 2018-1-11
• Date: 2018

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Digital/other
• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: 7p

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Automobile ownership; Intelligent vehicles; Multivariate analysis; Urban transportation; Vehicle sharing
• Geographic Terms: Puget Sound Region
• Subject Areas: Highways; Operations and Traffic Management; Planning and Forecasting; Society;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01660430
• Record Type: Publication
• Report/Paper Numbers: 18-04289
• Files: TRIS, TRB, ATRI
• Created Date: Feb 20 2018 9:28AM